Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 11

Nov 19, 2020
Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings: Week 11

Stacking players is a stairway to the top of daily fantasy tournaments, maximizing upside by creating the sort of volatility that can help your roster post a crooked score—one way or another.

Below are some of the most intriguing stacking plays I found while sifting through the week's matchups. Most of these options will leave room for high-ceiling studs. The goal, naturally, is to get a lot for a little. So let's get into it.

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Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints; O/U 50

QB Matt Ryan, Falcons ($7,800 FD/$6,300 DK)

WR Julio Jones, Falcons ($8,100 FD/$7,500 DK)

WR Michael Thomas, Saints ($8,200 FD/$7,300 DK)

Update: With Taysom Hill likely to start for New Orleans, Michael Thomas' prospects -- even in a good matchup -- take a hit. I'm not sure Thomas has any kind of ceiling with Hill's lack of passing prowess. Stacking Hill alongside Ryan and Julio will be a popular correlation play on FanDuel, where Hill can be used as a tight end. Julio's matchup could get markedly better if Marshon Latimore, who has shadowed Julio in past contests, misses the game with an abdomen injury.

Some might call this stack unnecessarily galaxy brained. Some might be right. Stacking Matt Ryan alongside Julio Jones and Michael Thomas is a contrarian pivot off of what’s sure to be the far more popular Jameis Winston-Thomas-Julio combo.

This game’s total—the week’s fourth highest—and the Saints being a not-terrible quarterback matchup makes Ryan a viable alternative to Winston. New Orleans allows 18 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing passers. Their stout run defense has turned them into a pass funnel: 80% of touchdowns scored against the Saints have come via the pass and 75% of yardage gained against New Orleans has come through the air. If Atlanta is going to score a decent number of points in Week 11, it’s not going to come on the ground. Enter Ryan, who scored 19 and 24.5 fantasy points in two meetings with the Saints on the strength of four total touchdowns.

The hope here is DFS players will be off Julio, who will see plenty of coverage from Marshon Lattimore. It’s not a fade-worthy matchup though. According to Pro Football Focus, Julio has the week’s third most favorable WR-CB matchup of the week. It doesn’t really matter that Lattimore publicly humiliates Mike Evans every time they match up. No one can stop a healthy Julio Jones, who has a hearty 28 catches for 425 yards and three scores over his past four outings.

We’re running it back with Thomas, who leads the team in air yards since his return from injuries to his hamstring and ankle and punching a teammate in the face for commenting on his slant route prowess. Last week against the 49ers, Thomas once again did nothing but saw seven targets in a game where the Saints were in clock-killing mode for the entire fourth quarter. Thomas will match up this week with Atlanta cornerback Kendall Sheffield, who has been gouged for 499 yards on 32 catches this season. Here’s the thing: Sheffield has given up that production on a mere 42 targets. Thomas might never be cheaper in DFS than he is this week. His price has plunged by $600 on FanDuel and an incredible $1,700 on DraftKings since the start of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars; O/U 47.5

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($8,000 FD/$6,700 DK)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers ($6,500 FD/$6,400 DK)

WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($6,400 FD/$5,900 DK)

The Steelers can’t establish the run. And they seem OK with that. James Conner is certainly in play here based on sheer volume alone but it’s the team’s passing attack that has eviscerated opponents this season. The Jaguars are next.

Let’s start here: This Steelers stack has the week’s seventh-highest ceiling among QB/WR1/WR2 stacks, according to 4for4’s floor-ceiling projection machine. When Diontae Johnson manages to play a full game, he dominates. In five games he’s played in full this season, Johnson has a 28% target share, never seeing fewer than 10 targets. We can’t assume a player will get dinged up during the game, so if you like Pittsburgh’s hefty implied total of 28.75, you have to like their No. 1 receiver to get in on the scoring.

JuJu, meanwhile, will see primary coverage from middling slot corners Tre Henderson and D.J. Hayden—two guys who have struggled against top-end slot wideouts. We’ve seen slot receivers post solid numbers against Jacksonville throughout 2020: Adam Humphries turned six targets into five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 2; Tyler Boyd caught seven balls for 90 yards in Week 4; Randall Cobb caught six of six targets in Week 5; and Keenan Allen lit the Jags aflame in Week 7 with 125 yards on 10 catches. JuJu, with a solid 23% target share over his past three games, is in position to be the next slot guy to roast Hayden and Henderson.

Pittsburgh’s offensive strength (passing) meshes well with Jacksonville’s defensive weakness (defending the pass). Nearly 69% of the yardage gained against the Jags this year has come through the air—the 12th highest rate in the league. They’ve been ripped by enemy passers to the tune of a 70.2% completion rate. Only the Jets have allowed a higher completion percentage in 2020. Obviously a big game for JuJu and Johnson—and Chase Claypool, another stacking option here—would mean a bunch of points for Roethlisberger. More than two-thirds of Pittsburgh touchdowns this season have come through the air and the Jags allow the third most schedule-adjusted points to QBs. Giddy up, as the kids say.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) @ Washington Football Team; O/U 46.5

TE Logan Thomas, Washington ($5,200 FD/$3,300 DK)

WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals ($6,600 FD/$5,600 DK)

Here’s our weekly secondary stack to throw into a lineup with a larger stack involving a QB. This matchup—one with sneaky high-scoring upside—offers a few potential secondary stacks, including one of J.D. McKissic or Antonio Gibson alongside Boyd or Tee Higgins.

Logan Thomas paired with Tyler Boyd is my favorite pairing. Boyd’s price point has dropped precipitously on both sites—$800 on DraftKings and $100 on FanDuel—and he’ll likely have minimal ownership in Week 11 tournaments after posting so-so lines in three of his past four games. Boyd, leading the team with a 21% target share, has a solid Week 11 matchup against Washington slot corner Jimmy Moreland. In nine games, Moreland has allowed 17 catches for 136 yards on 25 targets. Seventy-five of Boyd’s 76 targets this season have come from the slot. If this game devolves into something of a track meet, Boyd could see a bunch of targets come his way in a favorable matchup.

Thomas, who leads the league in tight end pass routes, goes up against a Bengals defense that’s given up the seventh most tight end receptions in 2020. Tight ends average 8.44 targets per game against Cincy. If this game pops and we see something similar to Washington’s pass-heavy Week 9-10 offense, Thomas will find himself in a good spot to prove a massive DFS value, especially on DraftKings. Only four teams are allowing more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends than the Bengals.

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