Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Patriots at Jets
The New York Jets finally have their starting QB back in the fold and it's just in time for a Monday Night battle against the undefeated New England Patriots. While no one thinks the Jets have a chance at winning this game, the Jets have a chance to have some success on offense against this incredible Patriots defense. Call it a hunch, if you will. Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.
- Demaryius Thomas, NYJ, WR - Questionable
- Chris Herndon, NYJ, TE - Doubtful
- Phillip Dorsett, NE, WR - Questionable
- Julian Edelman, NE, WR - Questionable
- Rex Burkhead, NE, WR - OUT
- Matt LaCosse, NE, TE - OUT
- Ryan Izzo, NE, TE - OUT
- Josh Gordon, NE, WR - OUT
Fortunately, all the key injury news is settled and we know what to expect coming into the game. For the Jets, it's only Chris Herndon who doesn't look like he will play, making Ryan Griffin a potential value option. For the Patriots, two TEs are out making Ben Watson the defacto TE (but also making Eric Tomlinson an interesting dart throw). Note that Watson isn't available on FanDuel and he's pretty pricey on DraftKings. Burkhead and Gordon being out means more concentrated roles for the rest of the Patriots offense. That's a good thing when it comes to making projections of outcomes, but it is the Patriots so someone such as Brandon Bolden could vulture TDs.
Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total
Patriots -10 Over/Under 43.5
This isn't expected to be a low-scoring game nor an extremely high-scoring one. While I tend to agree that the Patriots will win this game easily, there is the potential for the Jets to have some success on offense at home and my potential outcomes reflect that. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.
- Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 0%
- Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 0%
- Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 0%
- Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
- Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
- Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
- Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 20%
- Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 50%
- Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 30%
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