Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Giants at Patriots

Oct 09, 2019
Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Giants at Patriots

The undefeated New England Patriots look to continue their perfection against the injury-riddled New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. It's a game no one expects to be competitive so figuring out the probable game flows is going to be fairly easy. Do we go contrarian with the Giants or just hammer the Patriots as much as we can into our lineups?

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.


This is the most uncertain game in terms of injuries that I've seen this season. There are eight players, all fantasy viable, listed as questionable. For now, I am going to defer to the 4for4 projections where no projections are given for all of the Giants, but all of the Patriots have projections. The Giants' injuries are bumps for unproven backup RBs Jon Hilliman and Elijhaa Penny, while Golden Tate should be the biggest beneficiary to the Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram injuries. I'll check back in on this injury situation tonight and update if there is any significant news.

Edit - Phillip Dorsett has been ruled out. This means an increased target share for Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, James White, and it makes Jakobi Meyers a worthy punt/low-owned option.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

New England -16.5 Over/Under 42

This does not look like an attractive game from the view of the oddsmakers as the Patriots are massive favorites and the total is very low. I'm going to side with them on this one with all the Giants injuries so the probable outcomes are going to heavily lean towards the Patriots blowing out the Giants.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 10%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 10%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 30%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 30%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 20%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0%
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