FantasyDraft Week 3 Value Plays

Sep 19, 2019
FantasyDraft Week 3 Value Plays

Each week, l offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack, or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two flex positions.


Kyler Murray ($10,500) vs. Panthers

If we compare salaries across sites, Murray stands out as the best bargain on FantasyDraft, priced as the QB11 on DraftKings but FantasyDraft's QB22—he projects as the QB6 on the slate according to 4for4. Cam Newton’s health could impact the game flow but this should be the fastest-paced game of the week—both offenses rank in the top six in neutral pace and in the top five in neutral passing rate. Murray has exceeded 300 passing yards in both starts, suggesting a decent floor with the yardage bonus and he still hasn’t showcased his running ability—once he gets that going, the Cardinals rookie may end up being one of the better floor plays, regardless of salary.

Dak Prescott ($12,300) vs. Dolphins

Dallas is facing arguably the worst defense in the league with a projected total currently at 35, giving Dak as high of a floor or ceiling as any quarterback this week, but he’s priced as the QB8—$1,200 below Lamar Jackson and $1,400 below Patrick Mahomes. Only one quarterback has averaged more fantasy points per pass attempt through two games and Prescott has accounted for 77% of Dallas’ total offense, the seventh-highest rate among all quarterbacks. In other words, even if the Cowboys do find themselves in a blowout scenario where they pull their starters, Dak likely did more than enough to not just hit value but have a ceiling game.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook ($14,600) vs. Raiders

With value so thin across the board this week, getting Dalvin as the RB6 feels like a massive discount, especially with three of the top four most expensive running backs likely playing in offenses with backup quarterbacks (Cam’s health still pending). Minnesota is favored by eight at home against an Oakland team traveling across time zones in the wrong direction for an early game. The Raiders' stats against running backs have been good this year but they haven’t really been tested on the ground. This week they will face a Vikings offense with the highest run rate in the league, although just barely in the top half in neutral game script. They also boast a top-10 run-blocking unit in terms of adjusted line yards.

Ezekiel Elliott ($17,100) vs. Dolphins

This isn’t the week to pay down at running back, at least in cash games, and with the backup quarterback concerns for the other top running backs, Zeke is the safest play of the week with the highest ceiling. After starting slow in Week 1, the Cowboys back got back to his normal workload in Week 2, accounting for 83% of their backfield touches. Like Dak, The blowout scenario shouldn’t scare owners off of this play since the offense is so heavily concentrated around their top three players.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen ($13,300) vs. Texans

Allen leads the league in target share (36.8%) but is still priced behind seven other receivers on the main slate. His target dominance is somewhat unsurprising given his role in this offense and their current lack of depth. How he’s being targeted is a bit of a shock though. His average target depth (aDOT) is 13.2 yards downfield—he’s never had a season with an aDOT over 9.3. As a consistent red-zone threat, Allen’s new downfield style only adds to his upside against a Houston defense that has allowed the ninth-most yards through the air so far this year.

Nelson Agholor ($7,800) vs. Lions

Without any obvious pay-down spots elsewhere this week, Agholor is about as close as you can get to a must-play in DFS. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are expected to sit this week. Given a 96% snap share in Week 2, Agholor was targeted 11 times, accounting for 23% of the Eagles’ passes. Only eight teams have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers over the first two games than Detroit.

Tight End

Mark Andrews ($8,900) @ Chiefs

The league leader in target share at his position, Andrews is priced as the TE5 and comes at a $4,400 discount to his opponent Travis Kelce, even though they have arguably equal floors and ceilings this week. This game is expected to be among the biggest shootouts of the week and Kansas City has allowed the sixth-most raw fantasy points to tight ends through two games after coming into the season ranked last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

Darren Waller ($7,400) @ Vikings

Waller is the cheapest viable cash option this week but should primarily be used to go up a full tier to a stud or two at another skill position rather than as a pure value play. His floor is quite low given the possible slow nature of this game with Minnesota’s run-first, ball-control style. The Oakland tight end has seen 24% of the Raiders’ targets and even if the Vikings control the ball, Oakland will likely be forced to throw late in the game.

Defense and Special Teams

Patriots ($7,100) vs. Jets

It’s really the Patriots and Cowboys this week, and then everyone else. Both teams are favored by over 20 against two of the league’s worst offensive lines. The tiebreaker is the fact that New England’s defensive line has been much better at getting after the quarterback than Dallas and the Patriots will be facing Luke Falk in his first NFL start.

Vikings ($5,900) vs. Raiders

Minnesota is favored by eight at home which should set up a game script for their defense to be able to pin their ears back and get after Derek Carr. Even if Oakland keeps it relatively close, their passing rate in neutral game script ranks in the top half of the league, providing the Vikings with extra fantasy scoring opportunities. We would like a better O-line/D-line matchup but a defense favored by over a touchdown priced as the DEF10 is a rare value.

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