DraftKings Week 2 Slate Breakdown with Cash & GPP Picks
The Cleveland Indians just won their 21st consecutive game, breaking the American League record of 20 wins in a row set by the Oakland Athletics 15 years ago. To see that record fall breaks my heart a little bit—the summer the A’s went on their historic run was my last summer living in the Bay Area, and I attended most of the home games during that record-setting streak, including that magical walk-off for win No. 20. But why am I talking about baseball on a fantasy football website?
Having awoken the memories of that 2002 Athletics season, I was also reminded of the now popular Moneyball approach they took to get there. For those unfamiliar with Moneyball, the basic premise is that while most teams were still using outdated, subjective methods to select players (AKA the eye test), the A’s turned to predictive statistical measures.
For DFS purposes, there is a myriad of lessons to be learned from Moneyball, including focusing on statistics that lead to winning in the long run, such as those found in the DFS Playbook. Relying on name value or public opinion can open us up to subconscious cognitive biases, while a process rooted in predictive measures will take advantage of the inefficiencies in the methods of our opponents.
What this column hopes to accomplish this year is to be part of that data-driven process. Each week, I’ll give my overall DraftKings cash game and tournament strategy thoughts, and discuss how players fit into these strategies. By offering a general approach to the week, along with a player pool to consider, you should walk away feeling well-equipped no matter your bankroll strategy or game selection process.
Main Slate Cash Game Strategy
There is value across the board this week, which means there is a multitude of acceptable lineup builds for every game type. With David Johnson out of the player pool for most of the season, one of the most difficult decision points of every week is eliminated—he and LeVeon Bell ($9,800) see such a huge workload relative to the rest of the league, that trying to roster them both every week is always a consideration. Speaking of Bell, he’s priced $1,200 higher than the RB2 and is in a tough matchup against Minnesota, but is also the second-best value at his position. Regardless of whether you opt for Bell or not, probably the biggest driver of success in Week 2 will be how owners manage their exposure to the two big games—both NO/NE and ATL/GB have over/unders above 53 points, while no other game has an over/under above 47.5. Julio Jones ($9,200) has the best chance of hitting cash game value of any player in those two games, but my preferred method to attack those games is to roster one of the quarterbacks in the ATL/GB game since they are priced slightly lower than those in the NO/NE game.
Tom Brady ($7,900) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) figure to be the chalk this week, and I prefer the discount on Rodgers, especially since we know a larger portion of touchdowns are going to come through the air in Green Bay than in New England. As the home favorite, I do actually prefer Matt Ryan ($7,500) to Rodgers for just $100 more, but that extra $100 could very well be needed for other positions this week. A click on the optimal lineup button suggests rostering Russell Wilson ($6,800). Seattle is favored at home by 13.5 points against San Francisco with an implied point total sitting at 28. Wilson’s 45% chance to hit cash value is just two percentage points below that of Rodgers, who tops all quarterbacks in that metric.
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