DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 10

Nov 08, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

As Chris Raybon noted in this week’s Raybon’s Review, pricing has been tighter than usual this year, especially on DraftKings, which is causing owners to spend more at tight end. This has been evident in projected ownership as well—whereas tight end is a position owners should try to pay down for, there have been multiple weeks this year where some of the highest-priced tight ends are the chalk. In Week 10, the three tight ends with the highest projected ownership are all priced as studs. There is noticeable value at other positions this week, so these expensive plays may be viable in some cash game lineups.

Since the Colts’ bye week, only five players are averaging more targets per game than Jack Doyle ($6,100 FD/$5,200 DK). In that span, Doyle’s price has increased $1,000 on FanDuel and $1,800 on DraftKings. Even with the price hike, Doyle’s volume makes him the top-projected tight end value on DraftKings. He’s a less-attractive option on FanDuel, as he’s seen just 4 red zone targets all year and Indianapolis is projected to score fewer than 17 points against a Pittsburgh defense ranked seventh in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing tight ends.
Doyle and Zach Ertz are the only tight ends who have seen more targets this season than Evan Engram ($7,400/$6,200), who is essentially being used as the No. 1 WR in the Giants' offense. While San Francisco ranks fifth in tight end aFPA, they’ve allowed a touchdown to the position in three straight games and will be without starting strong safety Jaquiski Tartt for the rest of the season. Engram has just 5 red zone targets on the season, but the 49ers defense has allowed the most red zone plays this season and New York ranks in the top 10 in passing rate inside the 20.
With the Patriots playing on Sunday night, Rob Gronkowski ($8,100) will be a popular play on FanDuel’s main slate. Denver has been the most obvious tight end funnel in the league this season, ranked third in wide receiver aFPA, but 28th against tight ends. The Broncos have allowed 38% of all passing yards to go to tight ends this season, the highest rate in the league. Gronk is in a great spot with the Patriots favored by over a touchdown and an implied point total of 27, but his price tag is extraordinary, with just one wide receiver priced above the New England tight end.