Courtland Sutton: A Consistent Bet I'm Not Taking in Fantasy Football

Courtland Sutton has been remarkably consistent in his NFL career. He’s finished between 700 and 1,200 receiving yards and between 1.6 and 2.4 yards per route run (YPRR) in each of his seven NFL seasons. But Sutton is entering his age-31 season, coming off a season where his efficiency dropped to the lower end of his historical range, and facing a massive increase in competition from Jaylen Waddle. The bet in 2026 feels a little thin.

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Routes-Based Production

The table below shows some key stats for Sutton by year. The biggest change for last year was simply the number of routes that Sutton ran. His 623 routes were nearly 100 more than his previous career high. So, even with the big drop-off in efficiency relative to 2024, Sutton nearly hit the same yardage total thanks to the big opportunity increase.

And that opportunity comes from two sources: team trends and competition. The first source seems repeatable. The graph below shows offensive pass rate over expected (PROE) on the x-axis. Alternatively, the y-axis shows how opponents attack a team’s defense. You’ll find the Broncos in the top-right of the graph. They had one of the highest PROEs in the league, and opponents opted to attack the Broncos through the air. And that combination helped the Broncos hit the 7th-most plays per game. With no real changes in the offensive coaching staff or skill players (besides the one I’ll get to next), I could see the Broncos operate in a similar fashion in 2026.

Massive Increase in Competition

But the second source is competition in the WR room. The graph below shows WR routes per game on the x-axis and first downs per route run (1DRR) on the y-axis. The only other qualifying Broncos player last year was Troy Franklin, who ran a below-average number of routes per game despite the state of the Broncos’ offense. And that’s because he rotated with a bunch of other tertiary WRs on the team. Only Sutton was a true full-time player. And those tertiary WRs were not particularly efficient when they were on the field.

The Broncos obviously saw this in their WR room. So, they opted to send both 1st and 3rd round picks to acquire Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins, ostensibly to be their new WR1. Waddle’s routes per season have trended in almost the exact opposite way compared to Sutton’s. The biggest knock on Waddle is that he constantly gets dinged up mid-game. And combine that with a run- and motion-heavy Mike McDaniel offense that finished 30th in offensive plays per game. What you get is 260 additional routes for Sutton compared to Waddle last year. That’s almost the exact number that Luther Burden and Matthew Golden ran, for context.

But Waddle now gets the benefit of the Broncos’ offensive ecosystem. And his 1DRR were nearly double that of Franklin’s last year. Now, I don’t think Waddle is coming for Sutton’s specific routes. It’s certainly possible that the Broncos make both Waddle and Sutton full-time players. But Sean Payton can’t help himself with regard to rotating his players. And even if the routes continue, Sutton is going to have a much harder time keeping his efficiency up with Waddle as a target dominator whenever he’s healthy enough to be on the field.

Overall, Sutton feels like a thin bet. We saw an efficiency decline last year, sustained by both route volume and TDs. Going into his age-31 season, I’d be surprised if we see a big uptick in efficiency at this point. Especially since the addition of Waddle threatens both Sutton’s route volume *and* efficiency.

Sutton is currently going off the board as WR37 on 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP, in the middle of the 7th round. He actually goes a few spots later on Underdog. And I think he’s a best-ball only play this year. I take Sutton in situations where I started my draft heavier on RB, and I really need early-season WR production. And I still have only taken him when he falls past ADP.

But in redraft leagues, I’m trying to take bigger swings on my 7th round pick than Sutton. Brian Thomas Jr., Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon all go in the same range as Sutton, and I’d prefer all of them in redraft. Their floors are much lower, but we’re shooting for ceiling in redraft. You can survive your 7th round pick not hitting a floor. Let’s live a little.

Bottom Line

• Courtland Sutton has been a hallmark of consistency in his seven-year career, finishing within narrow volume and efficiency bands every season.
• But his efficiency dipped to the lower end of his band last season, with route volume and TDs masking that drop.
• His route volume could continue, as the Broncos are likely to remain near the top of the league in PROE and plays per game.
• But Sutton could also become a member of a dreaded Sean Payton rotation after they traded for Jaylen Waddle.
• And even if the route rate continues, Waddle has proven to be a target-dominant player whenever he’s healthy enough to be on the field, lowering Sutton’s efficiency ceiling.
• I’m taking Sutton on RB-heavy best-ball builds when I need early-season WR production, and Sutton falls past ADP.
• However, I’m trying to take bigger swings than Sutton in the 7th round of redraft leagues.