The Rhamondre Stevenson Alternate Universe

Being optimistic about Rhamondre Stevenson makes me feel like I’m in an alternate universe. In the Patriots’ backfield, there is an older veteran and a young player drafted for his explosiveness and pass-catching. In past seasons, we’ve been allowed to draft the younger player rounds after the veteran. But that’s not the case in 2026. So, here I am, writing a positive article about the older guy. You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.

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Patriots’ Offense

Ok, that was a bit overdramatic. I’m actually ahead of consensus on both Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. A lot of that has to do with the Patriots’ offense and Drake Maye specifically. I took the table below from my final ‘Hoopes There It Is’ weekly preview article last season. The Pats were top-five in EPA per play and 7th in success rate despite a poor running game.

4for4’s Justin Edwards has the Patriots with the 16th best offensive line heading into 2026, right in the middle of the pack. Part of the optimism stems from their first-round pick in Caleb Lomu. They also signed Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has flashed in the limited time he’s been healthy. And then perhaps Will Campbell can make a leap in Year 2 despite a rough postseason?

But the general point is, I want exposure to the Patriots’ offense. Maye is going to lead this team to plenty of TD opportunities. And half-PPR is all about TD hunting. Speaking of which, let’s dig into the comparison of Stevenson vs Henderson from last year.

Stevenson vs Henderson

I’m working on the ‘Most Predictable Stat’ series by position as we speak. And the table below includes some important stats I found when modeling the RB position. Projected fantasy points stem from that modeling process, and have Henderson with a relatively small lead. A lot of that is driven by his ADP, though, which is by far the most important variable.

But most of the stats from the 2025 season favor Stevenson straight up. He outscored Henderson in fantasy points per game. He had a higher TD rate and yards per route run (YPRR). He had more YAC per reception, which is even more impressive considering Stevenson’s aDoT that we’ll get to in the next section. And for all of the talk about Henderson’s explosiveness, his breakaway rate was barely higher than Stevenson’s.

We typically see rookies expand their role as the season progresses. If anything, we saw the opposite with Henderson. During the Patriots' playoff run, Stevenson had twice as many rushing attempts, 13 missed tackles forced to Henderson's one, and a YPRR 0.6 yards above Henderson's. Narrowing this to the red zone, Stevenson had four carries to Henderson’s one and eight routes to Henderson’s two.

RB Air Yards

Let’s dig deeper into Stevenson’s receiving role from last year. The graph below shows RB routes per game on the x-axis and aDoT on the y-axis. There is a strong, positive relationship. To me, that means that coaches recognize RBs that are skilled receivers and allow these backs to run actual routes or at least run routes farther down the field. And it’s interesting that Stevenson led the entire league in RB aDoT last year, by far his career high.

Ben Gretch just wrote an excellent article on RB air yards, and I’ll share an interesting portion on Stevenson’s down-the-field receiving work. “During the season I felt for a bit like this was work designed for TreVeyon Henderson, who got a lot of hype for his pass-catching role all through the offseason program, before his pass-blocking woes kept him off the field in those spots for key stretches of the year. But even if you buy that, you’d have to acknowledge that Stevenson was very successful with the work, and that’s what makes it interesting in terms of how that might develop.”

To me, since they were willing to give Stevenson that work, and he was successful on it, I don’t see a huge incentive to immediately take that away from him. And I wanted to check that it wasn’t just one play that was juicing up Stevenson’s air yards. The graph below shows the distribution of his targets in 2025. Just like with every RB, the great majority of his targets were near the line of scrimmage. But he also had eight separate targets that were 10 or more yards down the field.

So, Stevenson is likely the goal-line back again this year, consolidating that role in the red zone during the Patriots’ playoff run. He led the league in RB air yards per target last year, which is a talent indicator. He’s part of one of the best offenses in the league. And he goes off the board as RB30 on both 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP and Underdog, right around guys lacking any kind of receiving role like Rico Dowdle, Blake Corum, and Kyle Monangai. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m going to have a lot of Rhamondre Stevenson this year.

Bottom Line

• I want to be in on most pieces of the Patriots’ offense, with their efficiency and potential offensive line improvements leading to TDs for the RBs.
• But Rhamondre Stevenson in particular hits me as a value at RB30, particularly in best ball where the value of usable RB weeks is massive.
• Last year, Stevenson outscored TreVeyon Henderson in fantasy points per game, had a higher TD rate, better YPRR, and more YAC per reception.
• During the Patriots’ playoff run, Stevenson consolidated his role further, handling twice as many rushing attempts, generating 13 missed tackles forced to Henderson's one, and maintaining a YPRR 0.6 yards above Henderson's.
• Stevenson also led the league in air yards per target among RBs last year, earning eight separate targets 10 or more yards down the field.
• Stevenson might just continue to be the RB1 on one of the league’s best offenses, and is drafted around clear RB2s without receiving roles.
• He’s a clear value for me as an RB3 in best ball drafts.