6 Fantasy Football WRs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down
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For the last couple of years, I've used this outlier touchdowns column to spotlight fantasy players due for regression — positive or negative — in the upcoming season. Last year's wide receiver edition, covering three risers and three fallers, ended up being a mathematical prophecy. Puka Nacua, George Pickens, and Jaylen Waddle didn't just outscore their 2024 touchdown totals ... they outscored them by a combined 17 touchdowns. On the flip side, while Amon-Ra St. Brown only dropped by a single touchdown, he, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Thomas Jr. did all regress ... with the latter two tanking by 10 and eight touchdowns, respectively.
More Outlier TD Pieces: QB | RB | TE
In reality, the data isn't actually prophetic — and interpreting it isn't a perfect science — but there's clearly merit in the investigation. As a reminder, similar to the RB article earlier this month, the strategy is to evaluate touchdown rates (per target) from various field positions and to spotlight the outlier players on both sides of the sample. Here's a look at the data from the last ten years to set a baseline.
| Line of Scrimmage | TD Rate, Targets |
|---|---|
| Ten Zone (Opponent 1-10) | 36.90% |
| Red Zone (Opponent 1-19) | 25.60% |
| Opponent Territory (Opponent 1-49) | 10.40% |
| Midfield Plus (Own 1 - Midfield) | 0.85% |
| Total | 4.80% |
With all this math in mind, here are six names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2026 fantasy drafts.
Which Wide Receivers Should Score More in 2026?
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
- 2025 Expected Total TDs - 6.8
- 2025 Actual Total TDs - 2
- Total TDs Below Expectation - 4.8
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