DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 5
It's week 5 of the Air Yards Buy-Low model! The Buy-Low model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that. This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.558, which is quite good for a predictive model.
In GPPs you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and running backs who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
|Name||Predicted FP||Actual FP||Diff.|
- Odell Beckham ($8,000 DK/$8,300 FD) makes this list for the first time in its history (this is the third year I've done these and he was injured most of last season). There is a lot of hate for Eli Manning, well, pretty much everywhere, but the Giants have had an efficient passing game. They are seventh in the league in PACR, which is just yards per attempt divided by average depth of target (aDOT). Another way of saying this is that for every air yard the Giants throw, they turn it into 1.08 passing yards. What's driving this is a low aDOT of just 6.47, the third-lowest in the league. Still, Manning has a 74 percent completion percentage, 6.5 percentage points over expectation. Manning is getting hit on around 14 percent of his pass attempts, which is seventh-best in the league. There is no reason why Beckham can't have a blow up game, and this week he may be low-owned.
- Keenan Allen ($7,800 DK/$8,100 FD) also makes this list for the first time in history. Allen is clearly the alpha in the Chargers passing offense, but he has just one TD on the season. The model expects this to change, and with 26 targets in the past three games for 176 yards, good for a 27 percent target share, Allen is primed to have a bounce-back back game.
- Doug Baldwin ($5,000 DK/$6,700 FD) is playing hurt. By his own admission, he expected to be just 80 percent this season. This casts a sour note on what is otherwise a profile that looks primed for a breakout game. In his first game back from injury, Baldwin saw 49 percent of the 'Hawk's air yards and 27 percent of the team's targets. Seattle's pressure rate allowed is the third highest in the league, however, and unless Russell Wilson can get more clean looks from the pocket it's likely that both he and Baldwin's ceiling will be lowered.
- Courtland Sutton ($3,400 DK/$4,700 FD) remains on the list for the third consecutive week. He and Demaryius Thomas are nearly tied in Weighted Opportunity Rating over the past three weeks, and both are on the list. Sutton had two passes in the end zone fall incomplete against the Chiefs Monday night, and it is very clear the Broncos want him to be their deep threat with his speed, athleticism and big body to box defenders out on contested catches. Eventually one of those long throws will connect.
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.