Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 10

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 10

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Nov 17, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that A.J. Green is a top receiver, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a slam dunk starter every week in DFS and sometimes the matchup doesn’t play out. Green is typically one of the top wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. Although, it’s worth noting that Green’s price tag is still reasonable.

We’re hitting Week 10 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing points to a position. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Marcus Mariota, Randall Cobb, Stevie Johnson, fading Stefon Diggs, Allen Hurns, DeAngelo Williams and Brandon LaFell. We also had our misses with Doug Martin. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 9.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

The Cardinals run mostly three-wide sets, meaning Larry Fitzgerald is seeing a lot of time in the slot. Much like the situation in last week's Green Bay-Carolina game, he’ll avoid Richard Sherman for the majority of the game. In this case, playing the part of Bene Benkiwere will be Deshawn Shead. Shead has been one of the worst slot corners in the league. Fitzgerald is going to see plenty of targets, as he has six games of nine or more targets. The Seahawks might have a top pass defense, but Shead hasn’t been the reason. I look for Palmer and Fitzgerald to take advantage of the matchup.

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