NFL Week 8 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Oct 30, 2026

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Of course, it had to be the tight end on ‘National Tight Ends Day’ that cost our winning streak. I was tempting the football gods with that one, but still a profitable week, so not all bad. We’ve got some huge divisional and conference matchups this week, off the back of two blockbuster trades that saw the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks, who meet on Monday Night Football, strengthen their trenches. Before we get into Week 8, let’s take a quick look back at Week 7...

Week 7 Recap (2-1), Overall (14-7):

As alluded to above, Harold Fannin Jr. raced above his receiving line. I did not anticipate so many points in the Browns v. Titans game, and the Titans’ early dominance didn’t help matters. Chuba Hubbard, thankfully, didn’t really stand a chance. Down two scores early, the Panthers were forced to throw, and Hubbard couldn’t get into a rhythm at all. Jaylen Warren’s usage v Rico Dowdle was driving me nuts for a while, but he got up to 17 carries in the end. Now we turn our attention to Halloween weekend – let's hope for more treats than tricks!

Week 8:

Matthew Stafford under 250.5 Passing Yards v Los Angeles Chargers (-125)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

The Rams have lined up in 13 personnel at the league's highest rate (50%) with Davante Adams sidelined. Their pass rate when lined up with three tight ends is just 26%, and they face the Chargers this week as 6.5-point favourites. This is a big shift from a side that is perennially in the top 10 for pass rate over expected. In Week 2, when Puka Nacua missed out, their pass rate was just 53%. It’s clear that, when missing Adams or Nacua, there is a concerted effort to establish the run.

Blake Corum and Kyren Williams have formed a formidable backfield duo, rushing for nearly 200 yards last week on 33 carries (albeit against a very poor Las Vegas Raiders run defense). The Chargers rushing front has fared slightly better, though they have faced a mixed bag of backs ability-wise. Stafford only dropped back 10 times in the second half last week when the Rams held a healthy lead over the Raiders.

Since Week 1, every quarterback to face the Chargers has attempted fewer than 31 passes. While a couple of them cleared their respective passing yard lines, Stafford’s aDOT (average depth of throw) is just 8.24 yards, 18th in the NFL. The running back duo could be heavy recipients of any passing game. The reigning MVP completed 23/29 passes last time out for 195 yards. I am not expecting fireworks from the Rams' passing offense this week, and I would equally not be surprised to see Corum and Williams combine for 30 carries again as the Rams look to lean on the run.

Josh Cuevas over 8.5 Receiving Yards v Buffalo Bills (-145)

Risk 1.45 units to win 1 unit.

What if I told you there’s a tight end averaging 27 yards per game across the last three weeks, and his receiving line is in single digits? There is a fair amount of juice on this prop, but it cannot be understated how badly the Bills defend tight ends. In fact, name a tight end to face the Bills this year – there's a pretty good chance they cleared their receiving yards line. It’s also worth noting that Ravens quarterbacks target tight ends at the eighth-highest rate in the league, on 28% of dropbacks.

Let’s talk about the game – I do not hold out much hope for the Ravens getting the running game going in this one. Star rookie guard Vega Ioane looks set to miss out, though he has practiced this week despite being diagnosed with a sprained MCL. If injury reports are an indicator of who will suit up and who won’t, Lamar Jackson should play, which is a huge boost to the Ravens’ passing game. On the Bills’ side, they’ve been stout against the run all year, so Derrick Henry’s effectiveness is sure to take a hit. The Bills are 3.5-point favourites, so there's every chance the Ravens will be passing a lot if they go behind early.

Cuevas himself has been one of the more low-key breakout stars seven weeks into the year. His snap count total ranks him as third in the depth chart in Baltimore, but his deeper numbers tell a different story. His targets per route run (TPRR) is level with Mark Andrew at 0.22, but his yards per route run (YPRR) is higher at 2.33. He has also ran more routes than backup Matt Hibner, who is more of a blocker. The best part of this line is one catch should get us there. Even still, Cuevas has 10 targets, eight receptions and 79 receiving yards across the previous three games, a sign he is trending into a legitimate weapon in this Baltimore offence.

Kalif Raymond under 22.5 Receiving Yards v Seattle Seahawks (-122)

Risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit.

Raymond was one of the surprise players early this season, averaging seven targets, 70 yards and six receptions through the opening three games. However, his usage in recent weeks has plummeted. The 10-year veteran only has seven catches for 30 yards over the last four games, on just 10 targets. It seems like the early season hype has died, as Luther Burden and Rome Odunze are taking center-stage in the Bears passing offence, with Colston Loveland’s usage finally improving too.

In truth, there isn’t too much to say about this one. Raymond is a high-snap, high-route, low-participation player – his target share is down at 13.84%, and the Seahawks pass defense is not something to be sniffed at. They lead the league in passing yards per game allowed at 157. Their pressure rate, defensive epa/play (expected points added per play), and success rate all rank in the top three teams in the league.

The Bears’ passing offense has had its ups and downs. When Caleb Williams is on the field, their pass rate only increases marginally. There is no easy way to attack the Seahawks’ defense, but my best guess is that head coach Ben Johnson will try to establish the run early. Their run rate on first down over the course of the season is 47.5%, though annoyingly for us it is uncertain, and unlikely, that running back Kyle Monangai will play. They may end up passing a lot, but there are many other recipients ahead of Raymond in the line.

That’s your lot for this week. As mentioned above, there’s a lot of very good, meaningful games this week, so it should be a cracking full day’s action. The Seahawks v Bears game on Monday Night Football is arguably the best offensive and defensive minds going head-to-head, with the added facet of Quenton Nelson and Jeffrey Simmons’ trades. Hopefully we can stay in the green for a fourth week running! Let’s go!

Note: odds correct at the time of posting