NFL Week 4 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Oct 02, 2026

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Two losing weeks in a row do not feel great. Alas, we press on. It was a pretty exciting week of NFL football; 12 one-score games in total on Sunday. We learnt a little bit more about who we can trust and who we should be wary of. I like to wait four weeks typically before jumping to bigger conclusions. Another 1-2 week; not great, but let’s recap.

Week 3 Recap (1-2), Overall (5-4):

How TreVeyon Henderson couldn’t get to 12 carries after amassing eight in the first half, I will never know. Yes, New England were trailing heavily. Yes, he wasn’t running efficiently... Well, that might explain it, actually. All the Patriots had to do was keep it closer, and he’d have likely played a bigger role. Justin Herbert crept over 19.5 completions; safe to say the Chargers are a no-go for me after that sweat. Javonte Williams unfortunately cruised past his rushing total; the pitch was not an issue at all in the end. Let’s stick to what we know, huh?

Week 4:

Woody Marks over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

We’re shooting for upside again here, but recent media chatter is indicating that Marks’ role could be set to grow in the coming weeks. Incumbent No. 1 running back David Montgomery has failed to impress so far, despite scoring a hat trick in the opening game of the season. Montgomery is averaging -.34 EPA/rush (expected points added per rush), with a success rate of below 30%. He ranks 89 out of 93 qualifying running backs for total EPA.

Admittedly, Marks is not faring much better. However, the Texans can ill afford to drop many more games this season if they harbour hopes of making the dance come January. Marks represents an upgrade on Montgomery, who, as explained before, has struggled mightily. Dallas has allowed four rushers to eclipse 36 yards this season in their three games so far, so it’s possible Montgomery and Marks could have success – depending on whether Houston is able to remain stout on defence and ensure Dallas doesn't pull away.

It’ll be interesting to see the splits going forward between the two backs. Marks’ snaps have decreased since week one, but the Texans are winless and desperately need a jolt to revitalise a sloppy offence. This all-Texas matchup feels like a good get-right spot for Houston.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit.

This is one of the ultimate smash spots. The Panthers placed starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on Injured Reserve this week, with Will Lee III and Akalyeb Evans expected to step up in their absence. St. Brown has a 32% target share this season, good enough for the top three in the league for receivers with 50+ routes run. The Lions are 3.5-point favourites heading into Sunday Night Football but have given up over 30 points per game so far this season, implying this is far from a foregone conclusion.

The Lions are top 10 in Pass Rate over Expected (PROE), a stat which measures how often a team is expected to pass in certain situations v how often they do pass. Even if they are leading in this one, I would still expect a healthy dose of targets to St. Brown. I am also fully expecting a shootout here – Detroit themselves are left wanting in the secondary room with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch still on IR, and Panthers QB Bryce Young has not been afraid to throw it deep this season. If the Panthers can keep pace, which they should, this will be points galore. Sometimes, you just need to bet on really good players to do really good things.

Juwan Johnson over 3.5 Receptions (-116)

Risk 1.16 units to win 1 unit.

We’re going back to the well with the fast-paced New Orleans Saints offence. Johnson has carried on from his fine form at the backend of last season with 15 receptions on 19 targets through the first three games. His 106 routes run is good enough for fourth out of all tight ends in the NFL, and Shough clearly sees him as a reliable member of the offence. The Saints have run the league’s most plays this season at 74 plays per game, five more than the nearest competitor. They have a pass rate of 66%, the seventh highest in the league. With Travis Etienne on IR now, the running game is severely depleted with limited options available.

The Falcons have given up 18 receptions to tight ends so far this year, without playing against any of the top 15 tight ends in receptions (not including Thursday Night Football). Their run defence has been stout, allowing just 47 yards per game. Star cornerback AJ Terrell was placed on IR last week, so there should be plenty of opportunities for quarterback Tyler Shough to attack the secondary. This game also has shootout potential. The total of 47.5 seems on the lower side to me, considering both offences are going to pass a lot and will likely be going blow for blow.

All in all, this just feels like a great spot to attack – the Saints are fast-paced and are giving up around 28 PPG, the Falcons scored 30+ with Michael Penix Jr. back under center last week and will be looking to build on his promising showing. If we don’t get the back-and-forth game I’m expecting, Johnson only needs four receptions, and his average depth of target (aDOT) is just 5.7 yards. If any plays break down, he’s an excellent safety blanket.

Those are my three for Week 4. A little bit of upside with Marks, but I’m very confident in St. Brown and Johnson in superb receiving environments. After this week I will likely start putting out 2 Unit bets as I become more confident in what I’m seeing is fact and not fiction. As always, thanks for reading and let’s have ourselves a Sunday (and Monday!). Let’s go!

Note: Odds correct at time of posting.