Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 1: Circa Survivor & NFL Pool Plays (Jaguars over Browns)

Welcome to a fresh survivor pool season where every single team is available for picking. At the time of this writing, 4for4's pool on Splash has plenty of overlay, so get in here!

We also have the assistance of Sharpstack's EV Tool to guide us through this process, highlighting the win percentages of each NFL team and the optimal path, plus the option of a custom one if you are feeling it.

For me, the first week is usually a safe one, and it's ok to be boring to start the season. Getting bounced in Week 1 by getting cute never feels good, and you'll lose your shot at 100K in the Splash pool way too early if it doesn't pan out.

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Here's a look at the whole board for Week 1, and I'll get into my favorite picks and traps below.

Favorite Favorites

Chargers vs. Arizona (-9.5)

Justin Herbert, with new OC Mike McDaniel, should have success out of the gate this week against a Cardinal defense that was ranked 29th overall last season. Arizona has their share of new additions as well, but will be outmatched at home against a likely well-prepared Jim Harbaugh Chargers quad. LA will be a very popular pick, close to 28%, so you will win or lose with a chunk of the pool.

Jaguars vs. Cleveland (-8.5)

The Jags won eight straight contests at the end of the last season and drew a nice spot to begin 2026. Their offense is loaded with talent, even with Travis Etienne no longer in town, and the Browns will be led by Deshaun Watson, from whom we've seen nothing in recent activity that instills confidence in getting a win on the road in Jacksonville. This will be a popular pick as well, and this team's future value is lower than LA's.

Value Favorites

Steelers vs. Atlanta (-3.5)

If you're looking to mix it up from the start, Pittsburgh fits the bill this week. You can use them in a favored contest before the weather is a factor, and before their aging defense takes some possible injury hits. Tua Tagovailoa got the starting nod for the Falcons, so there's also that. The Steelers do have some juicy contests ahead (Week 2 vs LV, Week 11 vs. NYJ, and Week 16 vs, MIA), so factor that into your choice to zig this week or not.

Raiders vs. Miami (-3.5)

This is a pick that may feel gross, but you will likely not have any desire to use the Raiders again this season, so now is the time. Kirk Cousins is healthy and offers more stability on the offensive side over the Dolphins' Malik Willis, who doesn't have the weaponry around him as he had in Green Bay. Both teams are in new eras, but the Raiders' era is farther along in its rebuild. If you want to go contrarian to kick it off, Vegas is likely only being picked by 5.5% of the public.

Traps (that are favorites)

Lions vs Saints (-7)

This may very well play out as the lines indicate, but the Saints are a wild card this early in the season, and this game feels very trappy. Tyler Shough played very well down the stretch last year, and he has plenty of talent around him to pick apart the Detroit defense. There will be plenty of chances to use the Lions later, as they have a very soft schedule.

Eagles vs. Commanders (-5.5)

A division rivalry in Week 1 is tough to plant a flag for a survivor pool. The Eagles are favored by 5.5 in this one, but I would stay away until we see what both offenses look like in 2026.