Jake's Week 8 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 7: 5-3, +$173

Overall: 29-22, +$379

6.12% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 7 Recap

We got back into the green in Week 7, but after a 4-1 start on Sunday, finishing 5-3 was a bit disappointing. Nevertheless, green is green. We ran hot on Franklin, as he had 10 targets but caught only three balls. I wasn't anticipating a whopping 50 Bo Nix pass attempts in this matchup, but we still won. Jones o29.5 pa was an easy win, Chubb u38.5 rush yards was an easy win, Pacheco o10.5 rush attempts was an easy win, and the last easy win was Malik Washington o2.5 recs. All four of those easy wins played out exactly as I had thought, game script and usage-wise.

Goff is basically on the do-not-bet list at this point. I've been on Goff passing overs twice this year, and both times I've lost by the hook because Goff has been extremely efficient passing and hit on numerous big plays. Higgins didn't catch a ball, and for some reason, out of the bye, Braxton Berrios started playing a lot of snaps. It's possible Higgins just isn't very good. The last loss was Humphrey o2.5 recs. In hindsight, this is something I'd most likely stay away from. Shocking that Humphrey only saw one target on 37 Dart drop-backs, though. Here's to hoping the green weeks start to compound!

Week 8 Bets

Daniel Jones UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts

In games the Colts have won by 10+, Daniel Jones has attempted more than 30 passes only once (4 games). The Titans are allowing the second-best completion percentage to opposing QBs this season (73.17%), and Drake Maye last week completed an absurd 91.3% of his passes against Tennessee. The Titans' defense has also struggled against opposing offenses' rushing attacks, allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game (4th-most in the NFL). The Colts' rushing offense ranks 1st in DVOA and should find plenty of success versus a weak Titans run defense. The increased passing efficiency the Titans allow, their horrible run defense, and the fact they're 14.5-point underdogs make it very unlikely they will push the Colts, which makes it unlikely Jones throws 31+ times.

Risk to win 1 unit

Marcus Mariota (WSH) Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

Marcus Mariota has made 3 starts for the Commanders over the past 1.5 seasons, and played more than 20 snaps on two other occasions, and he's topped 34 yards in four of the five games. He does most of his damage on designed runs, including runs of 22, 22, and 25 this year (9 carries, 94 yards).

Looking at all quarterbacks who've played at least 100 snaps in 2024-2025, Mariota's 12.79% rush per snap mark is the seventh-highest in the league. He's starting on Monday night against the Chiefs, who have faced the highest rate of scrambles in the league at 13.5%, and they also faced the highest rate of scrambles in 2024, as well, at 11.7%. I think we see 3-5 designed runs and 2-3 scrambles here from Mariota.

Risk to win 1 unit

Dak Prescott OVER 22.5 Pass Completions

Dak and the Cowboys offense are facing a Denver defense that just yielded 32 points, 69 plays, and nearly 400 total yards to the Giants offense. The Cowboys' offense is one of, if not the best, offense in the NFL, and is an every-week shootout candidate regardless of who they play, given just how awful their defense is. I anticipate both teams will run a lot of plays, similar to last week's Giants/Broncos game, which featured 145 plays. Dallas ranks sixth in neutral pace, while Denver ranks third. Before last week, the Broncos had been the league's best defense at preventing explosive plays, but the Giants hit on 10 in one game. To put that into perspective, the Broncos had only allowed 20 through the first six games combined. I don't expect Dallas to hit on a whopping 10 explosive plays like the Giants did last week, and I expect Denver to funnel Dallas' passing attack closer to the LOS.

Risk to win 1 unit

Spencer Rattler OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts

The Saints are the NFL leaders in neutral pace over expectation, and with the loss of Kendre Miller, they posted their first positive pass rate over expectation since Week 1 last week. Tampa is one of the league's best run defenses, ranking 7th in run defense DVOA, and Alvin Kamara is already averaging a minuscule 3.6 yards per carry. If the Saints want to hang around with the explosive Tampa offense, they're going to have to get it done through the air, which will lead to more Rattler drop-backs and pass attempts.

Risk 1 unit

Ollie Gordon UNDER 15.5 Rushing Yards

Ollie is averaging an awful 2.5 yards per carry and has not gone over 15.5 rushing yards in 6/7 games this season. This game projects as another all-game trail mode game for Miami, which they're very used to at this point in the season. Ollie has handled only 23% of the RB carries this season, and with HC McDaniel likely adding another RB (Jaylen Wright) to the fold, it clouds up the sliver of the backfield Ollie has.

Risk to win 1 unit

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