Jake's Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 2: 2-5, -$377

Overall: 6-5, -$7
-0.44% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 2 Recap

After a blazing 4-0 start in Week 1, the results faltered in Week 2 due to some bad bets and poor luck. I underestimated the potential of Flacco's inefficiency in this matchup against Baltimore, and we bet on the only passing stat where he fell short of his line (passing yards). The Texans were outplayed, running 26 fewer plays and facing a 14-minute time of possession disadvantage, which killed Stroud's chances of going o20.5 completions.

Renfrow was an easy win as he's a full-time slot WR for an awful team that will be trailing in A LOT of games. I interpreted the reports from New England beats about a potential change in the backfield as Henderson seeing more burn, given their high draft capital investment and Rhamondre's unimpressive performance last year and in Week 1, but the opposite happened. It's just not Henderson's time yet. Overall, the 2-5 record is disappointing, but I think we ran a little cold in some spots; nothing we can do about it. Now, it's on to Week 3!

Michael Penix Jr UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (+100 FD, -109 CZRs, -111 DK, -113 Kambi)

It's only been two weeks, but the Falcons are 30th in the NFL in neutral PROE. Meanwhile, the entire Falcons organization is emphasizing that Bijan Robinson is the best player in the NFL, so I expect the Falcons offense to remain run-first. The Falcons face the division rival Panthers this week; the Panthers have been trailing by 17 points in each of their first two games at halftime, and neither were very stout opponents (JAX and ARI). Tlaw only attempted 31 passes versus Carolina despite being a significantly more pass-happy team than Atlanta, ranking 10th in neutral PROE. I expect to see a heavy dose of Bijan and Allgeier on the ground in this matchup, and when Atlanta goes to throw, I expect Penix to complete his passes at a high rate.

Risk to win 1 unit

Matthew Stafford OVER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-120 Builder, -128 FD, 30.5 on Kambi) 32.5s are okay too

Stafford has completed 71% of his passes this season, attempting 62 passes (29 and 33). The Stafford-led Rams face the Eagles defense, which has allowed a combined completion percentage of 58.7% against Dak and Mahomes. I expect Stafford's efficiency to drop and the pass attempts to spike in this matchup. In Stafford's two games against Philly last season, he attempted 36 and 44 passes. The Rams are 5th in neutral PROE so far this year, and I expect them to continue to let Stafford try and win them games through the air.

Risk to win 1 unit

Alvin Kamara OVER 3.5 Receptions (+104 FD, +101 DK, -103 CZRs)

Kamara has played six games with Spencer Rattler, and in those six games, Kamara has seen 6.5 targets a game for an average of 4.8 catches a game. The Saints are touchdown underdogs this week against the Seahawks, who have allowed the most RB targets per game this season (small sample size). Kamara has always been one of the Saints' featured pass catchers, and his role remains great this season as he's run 68 routes on 89 Rattler drop-backs ( 76% route participation). Kamara cleared this number in 12/14 games last season, and getting this at or around even juice is awesome.

Bet 1 unit

Puka Nacua (LAR) OVER 6.5 Receptions (+102, FD) also available: -104 CZR, +100 Rivers; also on ESPN, 365, HR, and MGM

We'll play the hits until they adjust, especially at this price. Puka Nucua leads the league with 18 catches through two games, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (44%) with a 43% target per route rate. The Rams have been in 11 personnel less this season than in years past (65.5%), but Puka has taken over that role and feasted. The Rams rank 8th in pass rate over expected (+4.0%), and I expect that to skew heavier here against the Eagles (+3.7% PROE against).

Risk 1 to win 1.02

Kenneth Gainwell UNDER 25.5 rushing yards (-113 DK, 26.5 MGM best number, fine to 23.5 FD, WA at 24.5 too)

Gainwell has 7 and 5 carries to start the year, but has been very inefficient so far, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. He now draws the Pats, who are allowing 2.5 yards per carry to running backs and are #1 in success rate allowed. I'm not sure if the Pats run defense is elite as it suggests, but they are probably a pretty strong unit. On top of matchup concerns, Rodgers talked up Jaylen Warren after last week, saying they wanted to get him the ball more. We have seen this play out before as Rodgers dictates plenty of usage/personnel decisions when he is playing... Subbing players out for others, telling coaches who he wants, etc. This line is priced like Gainwell is getting 7+ carries, but I see him more in the 3-5 range in a tough matchup.

Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Quentin Johnston UNDER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 CZRS, 46.5 best price at MGM, 43.5 fine WA)

Johnston has shockingly cleared 70 yards in both games to start the season, partly due to the Chargers' absurd pass rate and Herbert's ability to connect on deep balls with Johnston in both games. Denver ranks 4th in the league for explosive pass plays allowed and has done a great job at preventing the long ball, which is Johnston's specialty. Johnston ranks 4th among aDOTs of any WR with 10+ targets, and has a catch of 30+ yards in both games. Denver has a stellar pass rush, which has generated the highest pressure rate through two weeks, and a fantastic secondary behind it as well. He should see a ton of Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss as he lines up on the outside over 80% of the time as well.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-132 FD, -134 Cs) 22.5 yards is widely available and is good too

Juju's route participation should drop with the return of Worthy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tyquan Thornton potentially out-route him as well, as he profiles as more of an outside WR next to Worthy than Juju does. The Giants have shown little to no resistance in any area defensively, so I expect this Chiefs run game to get going as well (the Giants D is allowing 0.14 EPA/Rush, which is the 3rd worst in the NFL). Juju's playing time should dip, he has a low 0.10 TPRR when he has been out there, and there's a good chance the Chiefs are playing with a positive game script. IF Worthy is out, this bet isn't dead. Juju had only one catch on three targets for 5 yards last week without Worthy.

Risk to win 1 unit

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