Jake's Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting some of my favorite plays that I released via Discord in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 1: 4-0, +$370

Overall: 4-0, +$370
75.66% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 1 Recap

The greatest sports league in the world was finally back this past week, and Week 1 was a great start to the season. We went 4-0 last week with all four bets being relatively sweat-free. Tillman was tied for second on the team in targets with eight, and seeing that many targets, a 34.5 receiving line is just too low. The Browns could not run the ball at all, and Flacco was forced to drop back a whopping 48 times, making his o21.5 completions bet and the Tillman over amazing.

Dissly u24.5 receiving yards is where we ran a little hot on as he out-routed Conklin 21-12, shutting down the narrative of them being a 50/50 split or leaning slightly towards Conklin. Regardless, Dissly was a win, and he was only targeted on 1/22 routes run. The fourth bet was Justin Fields u27.5 pass attempts. In a 34-32 game, Fields only dropped back 25 times, making this bet sweat-free. The Jets will be the most run-heavy offense in the NFL this season, and when Fields drops back, Jets OC Tanner Engstrand wants it to be as easy as possible for Fields, leading to a high completion % and fewer pass attempts.

Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets

Joe Flacco OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-112 DK, -114 FD/Builder 239.5 CZRs)

We played Flacco over 21.5 completions last week in a perfect matchup against a bad Bengals defense, and Flacco finished the game 31/45 for 290 yards, cashing our over sweat free. This week, I'm interested in Flacco again, but prefer yards against the Ravens. While the Ravens are definitely a tougher matchup than CIN, the Browns are 12.5 road dogs, so we should see a ton of Flacco dropbacks.

The Ravens had the number one rush defense in the NFL in 2024 and last week held James Cook to 44 yards rushing, while giving up 394 yards through the air. The Browns' run game did Flacco no favors last week as Ford and Sampson combined for 2 yards per carry on 18 attempts against a far inferior front seven. If Flacco is inefficient at the start of the game, the Browns will inevitably fall behind, leading to Flacco dropping back almost every play. I expect Baltimore to pull ahead by a wide margin relatively early, leading to the Ravens playing a soft prevent defense late in the game, which will give the Browns' offense free pass yards.

Risk to win 1 unit

CJ Stroud OVER 20.5 Pass Completions (-108 FD, -110 Builder, -114 DK)

Tampa ranked 30th in the NFL last year in pass defense, giving up 245 yards per game, but it was the 3rd best run defense, allowing just 95 yards per game. Tampa's "pass funnel" was on full display last week, holding Bijan to 24 yards on 12 carries and coughing up 298 pass yards to Penix, who completed 64% of his passes. Houston's OL struggled significantly last week, resulting in a low aDOT of 6.7 yards. I expect a similar game plan this week, with Houston aiming to get the ball out of Stroud's hand quickly and make high-percentage, shorter throws as an extension of the run game.

Risk to win 1 unit

Drake Maye OVER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-118 Builder, -120 FD/CZRs, -110 on 365)

Under new OC Josh McDaniels, in Week 1, New England was 4th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE, +9.1), which resulted in 46 pass attempts for Maye. The Patriots/Raiders game produced the most snaps of any Week 1 game (130) and New England was 6th in pass rate during neutral situations.

This week, Maye and the Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins who looked abysmal in a 33-8 beatdown by the Daniel Jones led Colts. While the Dolphins looked horrible in all facets of the game, they were 5th in PROE on the week. While we like completions too, we prefer betting on the volume here given this is just Maye's 15th career start and second under the new system led by McDaniels.

Risk to win 1 unit

Hunter Renfrow OVER 2.5 Receptions (-114 FD, -118 DK, -122 Builder) Fanduel has 22.5 yards which is a viable alt

Renfrow was second on the team in routes run with 33 routes on 40 Bryce drop-backs and posted a good 0.18 TPRR (6 targets) in his Panthers debut. The Panthers were trailing for the entirety of their first game, and I expect another positive game script for Carolina's pass catchers. Juwan Johnson was the Saints' primary receiver in the slot last week versus Arizona, with 61.5% of his routes run from the slot. He led the Saints in catches (8) and yards (76). Renfrow ran almost strictly out of the slot with 83.3% of his routes out of the slot.

Risk to win 1 unit

Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 10.5 Carries (-121 DK, -123 CZRs, -135 Builder)

Rhamondre is fresh off of leading the NFL in fumbles last season, and the Patriots drafted star rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson. Rhamondre was brutally inefficient last week against LV, running the ball seven times for a measly 15 yards. New England ESPN beat reporter Mike Reiss said the Patriots' backfield snap distribution "could change". I expect Stevenson to be phased out of the backfield a little here.

Risk to win 1 unit

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