Jake's Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 14: 5-2, +$310



Overall: 52-43, +$254

2.25% ROI



Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Week 14 Recap

Last week marked our second consecutive winning week, and hopefully it's a sign of what's to come in the final stretch of the regular season. We had CeeDee over 5.5 receptions on TNF, and that played out exactly as expected. It was a high-scoring game, and despite the Pickens hype and production, CeeDee remains Dallas’ No. 1 target. He left the game with 12:47 remaining in the 3rd quarter, but it didn’t matter—he had already hauled in six catches for over 100 yards. Our Josh Allen runout looked perfect until Joe Burrow threw a pick-six and then another interception 30 seconds later, giving the Bills a late lead. Fortunately, we ran hot at the end when Buffalo struggled to punch it in at the goal line, allowing us to cash the over 27.5 attempts by one. In my write-up for JJ over 15.5 completions, I noted that despite Washington’s overall struggles, its offense had actually remained steady, and the return of Jayden Daniels should've boosted their production—forcing Minnesota and JJ to throw more.

Boy, was I wrong. The Commanders scored zero points, and the Vikings did whatever they wanted offensively, barely dropping JJ back. Thankfully, KOC wanted to get an extended look at his young QB and had him throwing the ball while up 31 points with five minutes left, helping us cash the over by one. Tee over 4.5 receptions was a roller-coaster sweat. He dropped a couple of passes and went in and out of the game, being checked for a concussion, but he still ended with a massive 6/92/2 stat line. In a matchup featuring two high-powered offenses and two awful defenses, plus-money on Tee over 4.5 was simply too good to pass up. Barner under 3.5 receptions was a bit sweaty because we needed Seattle to pull away and lean on the run game. Eventually, that’s exactly what happened. Seattle pulled away quickly in the second half, and Darnold stopped dropping back as often, which cut Barner’s opportunities. Pollard under 52.5 rushing yards was a quick death and a complete misread of the game environment. I mean, who expected the Browns/Titans to combine for 60 points??

Lastly, we had Elijah Higgins over 1.5 receptions at +145. I noted in my write-up that Higgins had caught two passes in six of his last seven games, doing so while running fewer than 22 routes in all six. This week, with Marvin and Dortch sidelined, Higgins ran a season-high 34 routes but still caught just one ball. It was an unfortunate loser, but it’s a bet I’d make 10 times out of 10.

Week 15 Bets

Matthew Stafford OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-118)

Stafford is playing some of the best ball of his career in his age-37 season and is the MVP favorite with a few weeks left, and why not stick it to the old team that traded you? The Lions' defense over the last three games has allowed a league high 318 passing yards per game and a near league-low 3.6 yards per carry over the same time frame. Detroit is shaping up to be a huge pass funnel down the stretch, with all their injuries in the secondary, and in a game with a 54.5-point total, I like Stafford in this spot to really take advantage of this defense through the air.

Bryce Young UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

Bryce has thrown over 30.5 times in only one of his last 10 games, and in his start against New Orleans earlier this season, he threw only 25 times despite losing. Carolina moves at a slug's pace, ranking fifth-slowest in neutral pace over expectation, and they also have the second-lowest PROE in the league. I expect the Panthers to stick to their offensive identity as a run-first team, despite not having much success with it in their previous matchup.

Dalton Kincaid OVER 3.5 Receptions (+125)

Kincaid returned from injury last week after missing three games and passed the eye test in terms of health (4/41/1 receiving line). Kincaid, against New England earlier in the season, exploded for six catches for 108 yards. New England's defense ranks 7th in receptions allowed to tight ends, and in a game that is a must-win for Buffalo if they want any chance of winning the division, I expect them to feed their No.1 receiving option.

Tyler Allgeier UNDER 1.5 receptions (-128)

Allgeier has not topped more than 10 routes since Week 8 this season, and the last three weeks has run 5, 7, and 7 routes. On the season, Allgeier has only 12 receptions on 13 targets and has historically never been a receiving back.

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

We're at five straight games of Brian Robinson Jr. topping this mark, and four straight where he's handled at least 7 carries. As massive home favorites against the Titans, there's no reason to expect the recent trend to change. Our projections have Robinson for 6 carries and 29 yards, which we think is conservative.

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