Jake's Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets
Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
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Week 12: 2-3, -$164
Overall: 43-40, -$342
-3.45% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
Week 12 Recap
New week and a similar story. Lower volume this week, but felt super strong about the few I had released. Roman Wilson ran ahead of Calvin Austin in Week 11, but the pendulum swung back in Austin's favor, and DK was in and out of the game with an injury; Austin closed at 1.5 juiced to the under.
I felt good about Lockett u2.5 recs, but that was quickly ruined when Michael Mayer got hurt after running only six routes. With Mayer out, Lockett saw a massive spike in playing time. Montgomery o46.5 rush yards was another strong one that just got killed by game script and the fact that Gibbs is too good to take off the field. The two wins were Robinson o20.5 rush yards and Stafford o33.5 pass attempts, both went about as expected. Robinson has run well for SF, and it's physically not possible to give EVERY touch to CMC. CMC needs to be spelled, and in a game versus Carolina, where a positive game script is likely, Brob got seven carries for forty yards. Stafford wasn't pushed whatsoever, but it didn't matter.
The Rams wanted to beat TB through the air, and that's what they did, posting the highest PROE in Week 12.
Week 13 Bets
Dak Prescott OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts
Dak has cleared this number in five games this season. All five games have something in common: Dallas was trailing for a good portion of the game and/or lost. Kansas City's defense just held Jonathan Taylor to only 3.6 yards per carry, and the week prior held the Broncos RB tandem (Jaleel and Harvey) to a combined 2.8 yards per carry. If Dallas wants to win this game, it's going to have to come through the air to their incredible WR duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Dallas Goedert OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
has missed back-to-back practices this week with a chest/shoulder injury, so there is a decent chance he misses Friday's game against the Bears on a short week. Obviously, Goedert would see a significant boost with Smith out, but regardless, I really like the matchup against the Bears, who have at times gotten shredded vs TEs this season (Theo Johnson 7-75, Juwan Johnson 5-79, Jake Ferguson 13-82). The Bears are the 8th-worst team DVOP-wise vs. TE, and they should be without their top 3 LBs again on Friday (Edwards, Edmunds, and Sewell).
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