Jake's Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 11: 3-4, -$166

Overall: 41-37, -$178

-1.91% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 11 Recap

Last Week was another slightly down week, unfortunately, and we had a couple of really good bets and a couple of bad ones. First, I'll highlight the bad ones. Mills u32.5 pass attempts was just not a very good bet. In the Titans/Texans first matchup earlier in the year, the Texans struggled to run the ball against the Titans, but since the Texans' defense allowed 0 points, they were not pushed to do anything on offense whatsoever. However, this time around, the Titans scored 13 points, which forced the Texans a bit, and Houston has also had no hesitation whatsoever throwing the ball with Mills, posting back-to-back positive PROEs and finishing 4th on the Week in PROE in Week 11. The other bet that wasn't super strong, but I don't think was bad per se, was Watson u2.5 receptions.

Watson is one of the Packers' only sure things at WR. He led the team in routes in Week 10 and again in Week 11. The Giants' secondary is weak on the outside, and it's clear that Watson is one of the only WRs that's trusted on the team. Windy weather or not, he was going to see some volume, and this wasn’t a strong spot. Now my best bets of the Week were undoubtedly Jauan o36.5 receiving yards and Bond u19.5 receiving yards. Bond closed at 6.5 receiving yards on Fanduel and caught zero balls. Jennings closed around 50 receiving yards and is operating as SF's true WR1 even with Pearsall back in the mix.

Week 12 Bets

David Montgomery OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards
The Lions have a 30.5-point team total, they're 10.5-point favorites, and Dan Campbell is on record saying they'd like to give Monty more touches. Monty averages 62.8 rush yards in wins this season and now gets a crack at the Giants defense, which is allowing the most yards per carry (5.5) in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford OVER 33.5 Passing Attempts
Tampa Bay's defense is allowing the 4th-highest PROE on the year. Also, opposing QBs are averaging 34 pass attempts per game when facing Tampa. On top of Tampa being a pass funnel, the Rams already rank 4th in PROE through the first 11 Weeks of the season. The only daunting part about this bet is the game script. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites and are an every-week blowout candidate given how strong they are on both sides of the ball. The Bucs have lost three of their last four games, but they have still pushed opposing offenses, even in losses besides the Detroit game. This Tampa offense always finds ways to score points, so I expect the Rams will have to keep their foot on the gas in this matchup.

Tyler Lockett UNDER 2.5 Receptions
Lockett is a 33-year-old midseason addition for the Raiders and has surprisingly played more than their 2nd and 4th round rookie WRs, which is remarkably stupid. Geno Smith dropped back 49 times last game, and Lockett only ran 22 routes. I doubt Cleveland will force Geno to drop back anywhere close to 49 times, and last week the Raiders shifted almost exclusively running their offense out of 12 personnel, which should keep Lockett under a 50% route participation. The total in this game is the lowest of the week at 36.5, and I anticipate grossly low play volume here.

Brian Robinson OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards
Robinson comes into this game having cleared this number in three straight games, with carry totals of 5, 8, and 8. We have seen the carry distribution between CMC and Brob get a lot tighter (61% to 39% in favor of CMC the last 2 weeks). Both HC Kyle Shannahan and OC Klay Kubiak have had nothing but positive things to say about Robinson's recent performance, with Kubiak saying, "Robinson has been awesome, he's a pro. He's stepped up and played really well when he's gotten his opportunities." There is no reason why we shouldn't expect another heavy dose of both CMC and Robinson this week as the Niners are 7-point home favorites against the Panthers.

Calvin Austin UNDER 2.5 Receptions
Roman Wilson out-snapped Austin 37-19 and out-routed him 21-12, and Austin only saw one target. Wilson looks to be taking over as the team's WR2, and the heavy usage of their TE trio (Washington, Muth, and Jonnu) will make it tough for Austin to see much playing time if Roman Wilson has officially passed him up. Assuming Arod plays with his injured wrist, it's likely that on top of the playing time concerns for Austin, Pittsburgh could lean more on the run game.

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