Who Should You Draft with the 3rd Pick in 2025?
The third pick is a fascinating place to pick from in fantasy this year. Across all sites in our multi-site ADP tool, Ja'Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson are the consensus first and second overall picks. After that, there are several different players ranked third in ADP depending on the site, making the 1.03 the first real decision point of your draft. Here’s a look at the four primary candidates you could take at the 1.03, and which one will best set your team up for success in 2025.
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RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles
At first glance, it seems crazy that Barkley isn’t the 1.01 after he ran for over 2,000 yards and 15 scores in his first season with the Eagles last season. But, fantasy managers have gotten a lot smarter over the past few years, and there is a general understanding that it would be nearly impossible for Barkley to replicate last year’s success in 2025. For one, Barkley had a league-leading seven rushes of 40+ yards, four of which were touchdowns. He added three 60+ yard rushing touchdowns in the playoffs as well. If anyone could keep that production up, it would be Barkley, but history tells us that he is bound to fall back to Earth a bit when it comes to his breakaway runs.
Once we take away some of those outlier long runs, Barkley’s case starts to weaken. As good as he is with the ball in his hands, Barkley was not much of a receiving threat for the Eagles. He caught just 33 passes for 278 yards, and I wouldn’t expect that number to go up this year, considering quarterback Jalen Hurt’s lack of inclination to check the ball down. Additionally, Hurts will continue to steal short rushing touchdowns from Barkley, which may prove particularly valuable if the longer scores start to fade.
Hurts punched in 11 touchdowns last year from the 1-yard line, and there is no reason for the Eagles to turn to Barkley in those situations, given the success rate of the tush push. It goes without saying that Barkley also faces injury concerns after a massive 482-touch workload last season. Combine that with a lower receiving floor and lack of elite touchdown upside, and it makes sense that Barkley is not the clear 1.01 this year.
With that being said, Barkley is certainly still worthy of consideration at the 1.03. A “down” year for him this season might still result in 1,400+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns, which would give him another top-5 finish at the position. Barkley may not have the insanely high ceiling he did last year, but thanks to his rushing volume and the Eagles run game prowess, he has one of the higher floors in fantasy football heading into 2025.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
If David Montgomery were to retire tomorrow, Jahmyr Gibbs would easily become the clear-cut first overall pick in fantasy drafts this year. Based on his absurd production and efficiency through his first two seasons, I think there is a real argument that Gibbs is the most well-rounded running back in the NFL. He accumulated nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns last year, and his 5.7 yards per carry ranked second among running backs behind only Derrick Henry. Gibbs has also proved to be a real threat through the air, with 52 receptions in each of his two seasons and a 1.69 yards per route run mark that ranked 3rd among running backs in 2024.
Gibbs' ceiling, however, will always be limited by the Lions near 50/50 backfield split. David Montgomery averaged over 13 carries a game last season and is one of the premier red zone running backs in the league, with 25 rushing touchdowns over the last two years. For reference, Gibbs averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game in the 14 games Montgomery played last season, and a whopping 30.4 PPG after Montgomery got injured. So, while Gibbs is talented enough to return value on his draft spot even in his smaller snap share, he will not have true overall RB1 upside if the Lions continue their shared backfield approach.
WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Through five seasons of his career, Jefferson stands essentially unmatched among wide receivers. His 96.5 receiving yards per game mark is the best in NFL history, and he has made either first or second team All-Pro in every season he played more than 10 games. For fantasy, that has made Jefferson the single most reliable asset in the league. Starting from 2020, his fantasy point per game finishes have been as follows: WR9, WR4, WR2, WR5, WR3. Jefferson’s season-to-season and week-to-week consistency is important not to take for granted, and that alone makes him a justifiable pick at third overall.
As great as Jefferson has been, though, his fantasy ceiling has not been as high as his peers. He has never averaged more than 18 fantasy points per game, largely because his career high in receiving touchdowns is just 10. With QB J.J. McCarthy stepping in as the starter under center for the Vikings this year, it’s once again hard to project Jefferson to have double-digit touchdowns. The Vikings are generally projected to be a league-average offense this year, with an implied point total that ranks 20th. Unless McCarthy has a Jayden Daniels-esque first season and lifts the Vikings offense to new heights, I project Jefferson to have another reliable 15-17 point PPG season and a relatively low standard deviation of outcomes.
WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Lamb was a bit forgettable last season in fantasy, finishing as the overall WR8 and racking up less than 1,200 receiving yards. A large part of this production dip was due to Dak Prescott’s injury, from Weeks 1 through 9, when Prescott was healthy, Lamb had a 1,400-yard pace and was the WR4 in fantasy. Now that Prescott is fully recovered, I expect Lamb to return to his 2023 heights and be one of the top receivers in football. Back in 2023, Lamb led the league in receptions (135) and was the WR2 in fantasy points per game, while Prescott put up MVP-level production.
While Lamb may face stiffer target competition this season with George Pickens in town, I think actually Pickens’ presence will do more good than harm for Lamb’s production. Pickens is a perfect fit next to Lamb as a prototypical X-receiver, and will relieve pressure off the slot and middle of the field where Lamb thrives. As a whole, Lamb’s usage all across the formation increases his fantasy ceiling, as he gets peppered with targets that boost his PPR scoring. Lamb ranks 2nd amongst receivers in targets and 1st in receptions since 2022. Additionally, the Cowboys have been one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league with Prescott, ranking top 10 in neutral down pass frequency every season since 2020. Prescott has never led a scoring offense that ranked outside the top 10, meaning Lamb could easily get back to double-digit touchdown production while pacing the league in targets. This gives him a lethal combination of floor and ceiling that makes him rather appealing at the 1.03.
Who Should You Draft?
All four of these players are phenomenal choices and have strong arguments to be taken third overall in your draft. Ultimately, my choice of the four would be CeeDee Lamb, who I think offers the strongest harmony between consistency and upside. Barkley and Jefferson fall into similar boats for me, where we know that their production will be elite, but they may not have RB1 or WR1 potential, which you are searching for at the 1.03. Gibbs, meanwhile, is held back by workload restrictions and would need to see a 15-20% uptick in snap share in order to truly exceed his draft spot.
My pick at the 1.03 in each format:
- PPR: CeeDee Lamb
- Half-PPR: CeeDee Lamb
- Standard: Saquon Barkley
I would happily take Lamb picking third in half-PPR and PPR, as he will provide the reliability of someone like Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown thanks to his target share and volume, but also the ceiling of Ja'Marr Chase because of the Cowboys offensive potential. In standard leagues without points per reception, Barkley is a better option because he is the least dependent on pass-catching. Gibbs would be my second choice in all three formats.
