The Fantasy Football Impact of Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears
On Thursday evening, March 14th, it was announced that Los Angeles would be sending long-time Chargers legend Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round pick. The deal saved the team from an impending $5 million roster bonus set to kick in on March 17th and continued the process of cleaning house on the offensive side of the ball after Mike Williams was released just one day prior.
The Bears get themselves yet another offensive weapon to possibly insulate Justin Fields, but more likely, a rookie.
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Keenan Allen’s Wide Receiver Profile
The 31-year-old wide receiver has continued to deliver huge fantasy performances while dealing with nicks and bruises over these last two seasons. Though he has missed 11 games in ‘22-’23, he’s coming off of his second-highest yardage season (1,243) while ranking as the WR3 in half-PPR points per game (17.3).
While his late-career slot usage has continued to float around the 60% mark, the Larry Fitzgerald-esque “Big Slot” route has served him well in these later years, and his efficiency has actually gone up as Justin Herbert continued to grow.
| Year | G | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | YPRR | aDOT | Half-PPR FP/G | FP/G Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 16 | 149 | 104 | 1199 | 6 | 2.01 | 10.3 | 13.1 | WR12 |
| 2020 | 14 | 147 | 100 | 992 | 8 | 1.91 | 7.3 | 13.9 | WR11 |
| 2021 | 16 | 157 | 106 | 1138 | 6 | 1.78 | 9.1 | 12.8 | WR15 |
| 2022 | 10 | 89 | 66 | 752 | 4 | 2.11 | 9 | 13.1 | WR12 |
| 2023 | 13 | 108 | 108 | 1243 | 7 | 2.36 | 9.9 | 17.3 | WR3 |
Allen has been a model of consistency dating back much further than this table, but an 11-year graph would probably be excessive. The aforementioned move to the slot has paid dividends as the aging receiver loses a touch of his top-end speed: Allen had 88 targets from the slot in 2023 alone, turning them into 59 receptions (5th), 710 yards (7th), and 21.99 EPA (15th), each in the top-15 among the position.
The void left behind with Keenan’s departure is going to be very apparent for the Chargers offense, particularly since Gerald Everett is out of town, and Mike Williams doesn’t look like he will be re-signed. In their steed, Joshua Palmer is the only player on the team who had more than 15 receptions out of the slot (23-358-1), and the only remaining player with more than 1.5 yards per route run (1.71). The next qualifying player (Quentin Johnston) ranked 90th out of 102 qualifying players with 0.88 YPRR.
The Chargers offense —and Justin Herbert’s bid as a fantasy QB1— need a massive injection of talent if they hope to succeed in 2024.
The Bears, on the other hand, are looking stronger by the day.
How Keenan Allen Fits in Chicago
Keenan Allen doesn’t only line up in the slot, but that’s likely where the Bears are going to envision him taking a majority of his snaps. Only two players took more than 150 of their snaps out of the slot in Chicago last year: Darnell Mooney —who is now in Atlanta— and tight end Cole Kmet. Kmet does happen to do most of his damage while moved out from a typical in-line tight end position, but there’s no doubt that Allen would be an upgrade to what he can do, which hints that Kmet might be closer to his 49.7% in-line snap rate that he experienced as a rookie.
| Player | Yards Per Route Run | Intermediate WR Rating* | On-Target Catch Rate | Yards Per Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 1.69 | 94.3 | 98.5% | 7.9 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0.89 | 63.8 | 79.3% | 6.9 |
| Tyler Scott | 0.65 | 21.5 | 83.3% | 5.3 |
| Keenan Allen | 2.36 | 137.8 | 89.9% | 8.2 |
*Passes 10-19 yards downfield
Partially due to the relative inefficiency of these secondary options —and many more who aren’t even listed here— D.J. Moore accrued the 12th-highest target share (25.9%) in the league last season, with Justin Fields (rightfully) opting to target him on 28.6% of his passes in the final six games of the season. Allen will put a squeeze on that elite-level target rate as a very legitimate No. 2 option, regardless of who is throwing the receivers the ball.
With both the No. 1 and No. 9 overall selections, the Bears are in the hunt for yet another piece to this offense, and if one of those happens to be a boundary receiver, Allen could be looking at the highest slot snap count of his career. What’s good for real-life football isn’t always the best news for fantasy, as three legitimate options would bolster the floor for Caleb Williams/Justin Fields/Quarterback X, but will eat into each other’s ceiling in the process.
Fantasy Outlook for the Bears’ Pass-Catchers
There are many moving pieces here, and more to come, but the easiest takeaway is that D.J. Moore is still this team’s WR1. He has earned that right by eclipsing 90 receptions and 1,100 yards in two of the last three seasons, with Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and the ghost of Cam Newton throwing him the ball.
That said, the influx of talent this offseason is going to lower Moore’s monstrous target rate, likely into the 22-23% range. This is still very good but pushes him out of the locked-in WR1 scope for fantasy. Allen, who should be considered a fantasy WR2 in his own right, an upgrade at running back with D’Andre Swift, an under-the-radar signing of Gerald Everett, and a potential extra piece in the draft are all working against another nearly 100-catch season for Moore.
Fantasy fallout will also be in store for Cole Kmet, who is reduced to streamer-only consideration with the former Chargers teammates coming on board. This probably would have been the case even if the team didn’t sign Everett, but it certainly is now. Allen wins in the same area of the field as Kmet, only better. What’s more, when the team runs 3WR sets, Kmet might be missing more snaps than he’s used to.
The tight end received 65 of his 88 targets (73.9%) with three wide receivers on the field last year, a huge chunk of his production. It’s fair to assume that many of those targets will now be going Keenan Allen’s way, sending the tight end back to the touchdown-or-bust option he operated as prior to 2023.
Bottom Line
- Keenan Allen continues to be fantasy-relevant despite his climbing age, consistently winning out of the slot in the intermediate areas of the field.
- D.J. Moore takes a bit of a hit and will have trouble climbing up to a 25% target share again.
- Cole Kmet is sliding off fantasy radars, with Allen taking his share of the slot snaps, and Gerald Everett squeezing him out from the other side.
- According to current Underdog ADP, Allen is coming off draft boards as the WR26, in the early stages of the fourth round. This is a very palpable price to take a guy who is still adept at threatening defenses before and after the catch. Moore is still going as the WR10 in the middle of the second round, which is an absolute stay-away until he drops down the board.
