6 Fantasy Football TEs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down

Jun 20, 2024
6 Fantasy Football TEs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down

It’s time for the last piece in this series on outlier touchdown production — this time covering tight ends. My methodology for pass-catchers can be found in the introduction to the RB piece, and the core thesis remains the same: players who over-performed or under-performed in the touchdown column last season should regress towards the mean this year. Knowing who those players are allows us to capitalize on under-the-radar value and avoid potential busts early in drafts.

More Positional TD Rate Trenders: QB | RB | WR

The touchdown rates for tight ends follow a similar curve to those of wide receivers, with a higher likelihood of scoring in the red zone and a lower likelihood of scoring from further out.

TE Touchdown Rates by Field Position, Last 10 Seasons
Line of Scrimmage TD Rate, Targets
Opponent 1-5 51.4%
Opponent 6-10 31.4%
Opponent 11-19 16.8%
Opponent 20-29 7.7%
Opponent 30-39 2.6%
Opponent 40-49 0.9%
Own 1-50 0.2%
Red Zone (Inside 20) 30.1%
Total 5.5%

One of the big initial takeaways from this data is that tight ends with higher target shares in the red zone and near the goal line gain a more drastic bump in value. And because tight end target shares are typically smaller than those of wide receivers (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews notwithstanding), it also adds weight to the value of red zone and end zone targets at the position, relatively speaking.

As with each of the other positions we’ve covered, several names saw outlier touchdown production in 2023 and can expect positive or negative regression next season … including a notable rookie on each side of the scale.

Which Tight Ends Should Catch More Touchdowns in 2024

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