SharpClarke's Divisional Round NFL Bets

Things are finally slowing down for me this NFL season. With only four games to handicap and six games to break down (over the course of three days), it did not take me long to settle on a position for these games. Of course, I am not alone, so we see these lines hit relative maturity earlier in the week than usual. Betting early is key. This article provides my analysis for all my bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription. Good luck if you follow along!

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NFL Divisional Round Bets

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KC +3 (-114) @ BUF (FanDuel, 1.15.24)

My numbers here make this BUF -1.5, so I like the Chiefs independently. I also have large future exposure on the Bills at this point (and smaller exposure on the Chiefs), so I am playing a +EV hedge on that future at the same time. If you followed me on the Bills Super Bowl at 40/1 and have a decent payout there, I'd play this for 3% (like I am). But if you did not get on board, then a 2% play is appropriate.

The Chiefs remain underrated. The Bills are also very good, but the secondary issues they are dealing with could matter here. They also did not do a great job getting pressure on Mason Rudolph, which they'll need to fix against Patrick Mahomes. I'm sure they will do better, but the Chiefs are a top offense in the NFL and, this time, are backing it up with a top defense. It's a different identity and one that helps them compete in games like this. I expect and hope we see another classic Bills-Chiefs playoff game here, but even with how well Josh Allen has played this year, this is still a game where Patrick Mahomes deserves every benefit of the doubt in a big game. Getting a full field goal is a no-brainer to me.

The Bills' offense has definitely done enough to get them to this point, but I am still waiting for that signature game where they look crisp and clean. Against Pittsburgh, they benefitted from a short field early and then had a long Josh Allen run on third and long. Once again, they did enough, but they'll need to step it up to make this a lopsided result. And if they don't make it a lopsided result, I trust Mahomes to keep it within the number.

Risk: 3.15% on FanDuel to win 3%.

HOU +9 (-110) @ BAL (DraftKings, 1.16.24)

This game is admittedly difficult to price, because 9 points is too low if you look at season-long metrics but too high if you weight recent performances higher, particularly for the Texans' offense. I am willing to take a stand that when you have a rookie quarterback, head coach, and play-caller working together for the first time, there is meaning to a late-season trend like this. The Ravens have played their best defensive games against Detroit, Miami, San Francisco, and Seattle. To me, that indicates they are an excellent defense at disrupting offenses built on scheme rather than excellent quarterback play (with apologies to Geno Smith, who doesn't quite fit that category). C.J. Stroud has already proven himself, and the Ravens might struggle against his playmaking ability, even down a few weapons.

The Ravens have been playing well down the stretch as well, but they didn't grade all that well for me on offense against San Francisco, despite the final score. They got outgained on a per-play basis but capitalized on five turnovers by the 49ers and ten penalties, which is essentially impossible to overcome. They did dominate the Dolphins, but they had plenty of "just okay" games in that stretch as well. This spread indicates that they are a truly dominant team, which I don't think is justified. There is also a chance for weather impact here that could continue to bring variance into play and reduce the overall scoring, making a big underdog with a good quarterback more attractive. I don't see a massive edge here, but I make it around BAL -7.5, so I'll take a little piece of perceived value.

Risk: 2.2% on DraftKings to win 2%.

TB @ DET Under 48.5 (-110) (Caesars, 1.17.24)

Recognizing how incredibly lucky I was to get the Under home in Rams-Lions, I'm going back to the well here with a Lions' home game Under. Playing with fire, I know. But the Bucs are key to this handicap. When I was watching the Bucs-Eagles game, it looked like the Eagles' defense was barely trying. Most of the big plays involved defensive mistakes, rather than the Bucs dominating. This matters because of how poorly the Bucs finished the season on offense. Against New Orleans, the Bucs had zero points heading into the fourth quarter. Then they followed that up with a 9-point outing against Carolina. Both of these games were win-and-in playoff games, so there was no question of effort or focus. Much has been made of Baker Mayfield missing several big plays last time these two teams faced, but him getting balls batted at the line of scrimmage and missing deep shots is just part of his game. I would not expect that to suddenly change here. Their run game should also be stymied, and unlike Matthew Stafford, Mayfield is not good enough to make miracle throw after miracle throw to keep drives alive.

This makes me tempted by the Bucs' team total under. But I also think this Bucs defense is severely underrated right now. The amount of injuries they have dealt with throughout the season makes their season-long numbers very misleading. Since Week 11, they have missed at least two or three of Lavonte David, Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Devin White, and Shaq Barrett for most or all of every game except the Jaguars and Panthers games late. They shut down the Jaguars and shut out the Panthers. They also like to blitz a lot, which is an advantage against teams with elite offensive lines, who thrive in one-on-one matchups (which are typically not possible when facing 6+ rushers). Granted, Jared Goff has performed well against the blitz this year (thanks, Ben Johnson). But past results do not always predict future outcomes, and I like the set-up schematically at least. With anti-offense angles on both sides, I will settle for a squeamish Under in a Lions' home game.

Risk: 1.65% on Caesars to win 1.5%.

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