Week 1 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Sep 07, 2023

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

There's nothing quite like Week 1 of the NFL season. The anticipation leading up to the season's opening weekend is unlike anything in sports.

Week 1 handicapping is also unlike any other week of the season. These game lines have been live and bet extensively since mid-April, which leads to a more-than-usual amount of line movement. Week 1 is often the most challenging week to handicap because we rely less on actual matchup data and more on our priors. We can make speculative decisions based on off-season moves, coaching changes, and pre-season narratives, but we don't really know what to expect until we see each team in action.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

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Let's dig into Week 1's totals.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time they're posted in Discord.

Week 1 NFL Totals Bets

New York Giants - Under 21.5 (-114, FanDuel)

This play is equal parts pro-Cowboys and anti-Giants, and we're sitting on the right side of the key numbers of 20 and 21 to play this under. I still lean this way at 20.5, but it's not a play for me unless it's at 21.5.

Defensive performance at a team level is often hard to predict, and many key defensive metrics aren't sticky from one year to the next. A lot of folks expected the Cowboys' 2022 defense to regress due to the high turnover rate it forced in 2021, but they once again forced the league's highest turnover rate in the league last season. Kudos to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who has pivoted from his Cover-3-or-die ways while in Seattle and Atlanta. He's adjusted to his personnel, and he's able to utilize them in a multitude of ways to cause havoc on opposing offenses post-snap. They're returning all key contributors from last season and have upgraded at multiple positions as well, including the addition of Stephon Gilmore at cornerback to play opposite Trevon Diggs and first-round pick Mazi Smith at defensive tackle. With three versatile safeties and the league's best defensive weapon, Micah Parsons, Quinn has a lot of weapons at his disposal and a new-found willingness to use them.

I'm a believer in Giants head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, and I believe they deserve a ton of credit for what they were able to scheme up last season. But they relied heavily on late-down conversions and low average depth of target (aDOT) routes completed at a high level to sustain their offense last season, and that's tough to do when you can't threaten your opponent with big plays. Big Blue backers will tell you that free agent addition Darren Waller and rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt change the dynamic of this offense, but Waller wins where the other Giants wide receivers win, and I need to see it from Hyatt before shifting my view of this offense. Daniel Jones's 6.4 aDOT was the lowest in the league last season, and his 1.4% big-time-throw rate was the worst among 2022 starters not named Matt Ryan.

Dan Quinn's defenses have kept the Giants under 21 points in four straight games, and I'm going to the window here with confidence that this streak will stand at five come Sunday night.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit on FanDuel