Dynasty Late-Round Rookie Pick Trade Strategy
The rookie draft is a dynasty owner’s favorite time of the year, and rookie picks are the assets we go crazy over. We don’t know what player a pick will turn into, but we’re excited for the opportunity to find out and dream up likely scenarios to help get us through the anticipation.
I wrote an earlier article about rookie values over time. The purpose of this article is to help you decide whether to take a chance on a rookie or trade the pick away for the known quantity instead.
My name is Mike Havens. If you like what you read and want to see more, please follow me on Twitter @MikeEHavens, or read my other articles on Dynasty League Football.
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The premise of this piece is to compare and contrast what’s known with what’s possible. In the earlier article linked above, I showed that most first-rounders tend to go up in dynasty value after their first year, half of the second-rounders increase in value, and hardly any third or fourth-rounders increase significantly enough to be worthwhile in the long run.
That said, what do you plan on doing with your third, fourth, and later-round picks? I would like to present some options to you today that will maybe give you some ideas on how to fill your roster out a little differently than others.
How to Value Dynasty Rookie Picks
The first thing we do is figure out what value rookie picks have to begin with. You can look at rankings and read articles about this exact topic, but I prefer to scan actual dynasty startup data instead.
Below is a compilation of rookie pick values from 2014–2023, leading up to the rookie draft, based on actual drafts.
The data used to create this list was taken from a mixture of leagues. There is slightly more value in draft picks in two-QB leagues than single-QB, but the data we need lies in the later rounds because that’s usually the cutoff between a good investment and a lottery ticket in rookie drafts.
Fourth-round picks were all over the map and therefore hard to scale. For the purpose of this article, we will assume any fourth-round pick has a relative value of ADP225 and work from there.
Players selected in fantasy drafts 25th or later tend to fail more often than they succeed in the NFL. What if instead of using these picks to draft a rookie, we try to find a trade partner for equal value and swap a known quantity instead? This is what I’ve been doing the past few years, and I’ve had greater success than if I had used those picks to draft a rookie player.
Valuing 2023 Rookie Picks and Trade Values
As you can see from this list, the 25th overall selection has had an average ADP of 163.6 across all leagues. This gives us the relative value that most owners have of the selection, and you can compare that with other players who have similar ADPs to help you make a deal.
Players such as Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, and Zay Jones have a current relative ADP of 163 on DLF. You may be able to strike a deal with an owner who wants a lottery ticket instead. If you do, you walk away with a serviceable player you know you can use, and the other owner takes in a third-round pick that has a high failure rate.
Do you have a late third-round pick? The average late third-round pick is valued around the 200 ADP range where you can find veterans Jerome Ford and Rashid Shaheed. These are two young guys I’ve liked who stand to gain a bit of value this year as they move up the depth chart. Veterans Jimmy Garoppolo and Robert Woods make serviceable backups as well.
The Bottom Line
It should also be noted that the closer you get to draft day, the more value your picks will have. If you are on the clock, your rookie pick will have the most value it will ever have. This is the best time to strike a deal with another owner while they go through the fear of missing out!
So how far back should you go? I suggest trading any third and fourth-rounder you have if the possible depth that you can acquire will help you. This will either help your team now, or you will accumulate enough value to trade depth to owners trying to make a run later in the year. Either way, it’s a winning strategy I’ve employed for a while and I’d like to pass this on to those looking for a way to gain an edge in their leagues.
