NBA Player Prop Bets: Make The Sharp(e) Play
The NBA is showing us bettors no mercy on Friday, rolling out a 13-game mega-slate before a weekend of hoops and a Monday off. With playoff races in full effect and other teams shutting down starters, things are bound to get messy. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.
Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 31, 2023)
James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (+100 at DraftKings)
Part of the reason that the 76ers have experienced arguably their best year in the Joel Embiid era is the adaptation of the role that James Harden has showcased. He’s always been an elite passer, one of the best in the league even. That said, he’s fully embraced his role as a facilitator first and the primary table-setter for this Sixers team.
On the season overall, only Tyrese Haliburton (19.8) has averaged more potential assists per game than Harden (17.4), and no player in the entire league has averaged more assists per game (10.9) than Harden. He returned from injury with a 12-assist performance on 14 potential assists and while that level of efficiency likely won’t keep up, we can also expect the potential to rise back to the norm a bit to offset a potential efficiency drop.
He draws a difficult matchup on Friday against the Raptors and will likely see a lot of OG Anunoby (if the Raptors opt to not use him on Embiid), which should lead Harden to defer more than he already does and open up assist opportunities to his other teammates on offense. At plus money, this is a massive value.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
DraftKings $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Nic Claxton Over 12.5 Points (-115 at PointsBet)
There are very few teams in the NBA that are more attackable at the rim than the Hawk, and Claxton has been a player that has shown an immense amount of promise and development this year.
On the season, the Hawks have allowed the second-most field goals within six feet of the basket (21.6 per game), allowing opponents to shoot an astounding 65% from this range. They’ve also allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage (48.5%) and the eighth-most points per game (117.8) on the season. Having surrendered 18 or more points to each of the last three bigs they faced (Evan Mobley, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevon Looney), Claxton comes into this game in a prime position to exploit this defense.
It also helps that Claxton is in good form, having hit this over in six of his last 10 games, averaging 14.1 points per game over that span. This line opened a few points lower than I expected it to, making it an easy click on the Friday slate.
Risk: 1.15 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit.
PointsBet Sportsbook
Shaedon Sharpe Over 22.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)
There are very few players in the NBA with a longer leash than Shaedon Sharpe right now. Coach Chauncey Billups noted last week that he essentially intends to play Sharpe until he fouls out every night. Well, that seems to have come to fruition. Over the last five games, Sharpe’s 38.6 minutes per game rank first in the entire NBA, as he’s come off the court for less than 10 minutes per game.
With the rest of the Blazers starters seemingly shut down, Sharpe has stepped into the alpha role in more than just a playing time standpoint. Over those five games, he’s averaged 23.8 points on 45.7% shooting (45% from three). He’s also posted three games with a usage rate of at least 27.8% over that span, topping off at 30.4% in his last game.
He draws a great matchup on Friday, and while the Blazers' offense as a whole is rather anemic at this point, they get a massive pace-up spot against one of the worst defenses in basketball in the Sacramento Kings. Someone has to score for Portland, and I’m willing to bet on Sharpe once again.
Risk: 1.15 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.
BetMGM Bonus
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