Week 16 Busts: 4 Players to Avoid

Dec 21, 2022

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You could write a whole book on Week 15’s action alone. I felt mentally exhausted trying to process everything we witnessed, from overtime games to historic comebacks. You’d think it’d be time to wind down, but (hopefully) you’re onto the second round of the playoffs. So first, congratulations! And second, let’s slide into the holiday spirit with four players to work around to keep your playoff hopes alive.

General Thoughts

I couldn’t find any quarterbacks with horrendous matchups. The Patriots are 17^th in dropback success rate over the last few weeks, giving Joe Burrow a shot at a positive outcome. Gardner Minshew isn’t Trevor Lawrence, but Philadelphia has better pass-catching options against a reeling Dallas defense. In short, I could tell myself a story about any of these guys succeeding. However, given the bad weather ahead of us, I did have a few general thoughts.

Jaguars at Jets: rainfall will be up to 0.16 in/hour in the second half of the game. Unless both offenses have hot starts, expect passing rates to decline. A similar situation happened in the second half of Week 12 for Chicago (-21.3% PROE) and the Jets (-7.2%).
Buffalo at Chicago: 21 mph winds across the stadium with a wind chill of -11 degrees. Two extreme conditions that have historically cut into total play and pass volume.

There are a couple of other cold games, but we’ll continue to monitor the forecast ahead of each kickoff. I’m most concerned about TNF, but there’s still time to adjust. Let’s look at other plays to avoid this week.

Running Back

James Conner (Cardinals) vs. Buccaneers

It’s not about the workload for James Conner. Currently, he owns essentially every touch in Arizona’s backfield.

James Conner Touch Share, Weeks 14-15
Situation	Conner Touch Rate
Third Down	66.7%
Short Yardage	100.0%
Red Zone	80.0%
Two Minute	100.0%

Outside of a random target to Corey Clement and a single carry by Keaontay Ingram, it’s been all Conner. However, his touches aren’t as impactful if the offense can’t move the ball.