2022 NFL MVP Odds: Jalen Hurts is the Clear Favorite

Dec 13, 2022
2022 NFL MVP Odds

The 2022 NFL MVP race has been tight all year with multiple players playing well up until recently. With a few recent struggles from Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen, there are now two clear candidates.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Jalen Hurts

Odds: -165

After a dominant win over the Giants, Jalen Hurts is now the odds-on favorite at BetMGM at -165. After opening the season north of +5000, the Eagles' magical season has put Hurts in a fantastic position to potentially win the MVP. The rest of the Eagles' schedule suggests Hurts’ odds may continue to become steeper with the hapless Chicago Bears defense on deck. A win over the Cowboys the following week would essentially seal the deal for Hurts’ MVP candidacy, but that’s a big if. The Eagles will be on the final leg of a three-game road stint and the Cowboys will be looking for revenge after a drubbing earlier in the season. They finish off the season against the Saints and Giants, two teams they will be heavy favorites against.

Patrick Mahomes

Odds: +200

If Jalen Hurts were to falter at all (potentially against the Cowboys), Patrick Mahomes could find himself in a great position to beat out Jalen Hurts for MVP. I find it interesting that Mahomes is an underdog here despite playing in what was perceived as the toughest division in the NFL and the Chiefs sporting a 10-3 record with four weeks remaining. The Chiefs' schedule to wrap up the season is a borderline cakewalk with the Houston Texans first up in Week 15. They then host a Seattle Seahawks team that has taken a tumble in recent games, host the Broncos in Week 17, then wrap up the season against the Raiders. A 4-0 sweep is likely the expectation here for the Chiefs. If that happens, and the Eagles lose one of their final games, Mahomes will be squarely in the conversation for MVP.

Joe Burrow

Odds: +700

While both the Chiefs and Eagles have relatively easy schedules heading into the playoffs, the Bengals do not. They have back-to-back road games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Patriots. After facing two teams fighting for their playoff lives they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 with potential playoff-seeding implications. To wrap up the year, they play against the current co-division leaders, the Ravens. Maybe it strengthens Joe Burrow’s MVP case if he can win all of those games but the path to that happening and both Mahomes and Hurts faltering is a tough sell for me at +700.

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Josh Allen

Odds: +1800

The Bills are currently in first place in the AFC South but Josh Allen hasn’t played particularly well since injuring his UCL in Week 9 against the Jets. They draw the Dolphins at home in Week 15, a matchup expected to be below 20 degrees with snow. This is likely an advantage for the Bills who are much more used to the frigid conditions than the Dolphins, who reportedly used heaters on the sidelines in a game that was 55 degrees recently. The Bills then square off against the Bears, Bengals, and Patriots. The only chance Josh Allen has at MVP is going 4-0 and both Mahomes and Hurts struggling. I would rather take a shot at Josh Allen at 18/1 than Burrow at 7/1 if Josh Allen starts playing better and the Bills rack up a few wins.

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