NBA Player Prop Bets: Poole Party Gets Sloppy

Over the course of a season, there are certain players or specific props that will become regulars but one of the hardest things to learn is when to walk away from a prop that has been profitable and then know when it is time to return to it. All three props today have been used multiple times and due to outside circumstances are back in play.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable start to the week.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 6, 2023)

Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Turnovers (-125 at BetMGM)

Anyone who has followed my plays knows my hesitance with laying this much juice but the setup is too good to ignore.

Jordan Poole is likely somewhat extended beyond his best role when having to run the point for the Warriors with Steph Curry. He has been best as a secondary creator who specializes in shooting when coming off screens. When in the starting lineup this season, Poole has averaged 3.7 turnovers and a whopping 4.9 when Curry is out of the lineup. Poole has gone over this prop in 13 of the 15 games this year. The assists stay the same for Poole whether Curry is in or out of the lineup, so all the extra touch time leads to a lot of one-on-one play or trying to do everything himself. That style of play will lead to turnovers.

The Warriors are hosting the Thunder tonight. With their length in the backcourt, it is no wonder they are third in forcing turnovers this season. With an increased role, minutes load, and an opponent adept at turning opposing guards over, there is value in this over.

Risk: 1.25 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -130)

[subscribe_betting]

Walker Kessler To Record a Double-Double (+185 at DraftKings)

Game in and game out Walker Kessler has been knocking on the door of a double-double. In the last month, he has five of them and was one point or rebound away in two more. In the last 12 games, Kessler is averaging a double-double and has two of them in his last three games. His primary backup has been Jarred Vanderbilt but Vanderbilt is questionable today. If he does not go, that should lead to a higher minutes floor for Kessler.

The Jazz are hosting the Dallas Mavericks, who are short-handed due to the Kyrie Irving trade. On the positive side for the Mavs, Christian Wood will play tonight. For Kessler, that does add another solid rebounder to the Dallas rotation but the Mavs have been allowing the most rebounds to centers the last two weeks and Kessler. Kessler is a big body Dallas has issues matching up with, so Kessler should be able to take advantage.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.85 units. (Playable to +150)

Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 Assists (+110 at BetMGM)

The gravy train that was this prop did hit a bump but it looks to be back on track for tonight’s game.

In the last three games, Alperen Sengun has not gone over this prop but in two of those games, Jalen Green was out. The two-man game between Green and Sengun has been the basis of the offense since Kevin Porter Jr. left the lineup. In the other game, it was a brutal spot for the Rockets. They went to Oklahoma City on the second night of a back-to-back to face a Thunder team that had extra rest and Sengun only played 15 minutes because the game got out of hand. It is fine now because those games have brought the juice back down.

In 10 games with no Porter Jr. but Jalen Green plays, Sengun has gone over this prop in 9-of-10 and is averaging over seven assists per game. In that 10-game stretch, Sengun’s front-court touches increased from 33.8 to 49.1, and his time of possession lept from 1.8 seconds to 3.2. Clearly, the ball was in his hands more with Porter Jr. not in the lineup, giving him more opportunities to get assists.

The Rockets are hosting the Kings, who are on the second night of a back-to-back and Sengun has fared well against Houston this year. Both games came with Porter Jr. out of the lineup and Sengun went over this prop in both contests, averaging 8.5 assists on 11.0 potential assists. Getting this prop at plus-money when the biggest factors leading to unders in the last three were out of Sengun’s control make this over even more attractive.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1.1 units. (Playable to -110)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.