Ryan Noonan: 3 Week 17 NFL Player Props I'm Betting

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.

Without polling our betting subscribers, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football as well. If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With player props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

Don't forget to tune into our Prop Drop Show where Connor and I are joined by PropStarz as we go around the horn sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we take all the listener/viewer questions we have time for. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.

Let's dig in.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

More Player Props: Connor Allen | Sam Hoppen

Week 17 Player Prop Bets

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Sony Michel Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Caesars)

It's rare to reasonably project a running back to handle 100% of the snaps in a given week, but that's well within the range of potential outcomes for Sony Michel here this week. With Darrell Henderson on the I.R., the Rams are working with Jake Funk and special team ace Buddy Howell as their healthy backup options while Cam Akers works his way back from an Achilles injury. Over the past four weeks, Sony Michel's role has grown from complimentary back to lead back, and the results have been terrific. He's averaged 22.5 carries and 106 yards per game on the ground, and as a near-touchdown road favorite here against Baltimore, he's looking at a floor of 18-20 carries again. With that type of workload, efficiency concerns disappear.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Caesars.

Cooper Kupp Over 106.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Taking the over on a receiving prop north of 100 is wild, but Cooper Kupp is breaking the mold this season in pursuit of breaking records. Kupp is 18 catches and 231 yards away from breaking the single-season records in each category, and his teammates are pushing for 266 yards from Kupp to cross the 2,000-yard barrier. He's topped this number in eight of his last 10 games, and he's now facing a decimated Ravens secondary that's allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays on the season (12%), along with the most total explosive pass plays (68). It's the perfect blend of skill, matchup and narrative.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Chuba Hubbard Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Caesars)

According to Next Gen Stats, no running back has done less with his opportunities this season than the rookie out of Oklahoma State. He has the lowest rushing yards over expectation per attempt this season, and on the road against the Saints' top-ranked run defense isn't the spot to start being efficient. Chuba Hubbard has 88 rushing yards in the past four games since taking over the lead role again in Week 12, failing to top this number in any of those contests. A bull case for Chuba, albeit thin, would be in a positive game script, but as 7-point underdogs on the road, that seems unlikely.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Caesars.

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