Connor Allen: 2 Week 17 Player Props I'm Betting

Jan 03, 2022

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As the legalization of sports betting continues to explode, more and more people are diving into a new way of speculating on sports. For those just starting off, I broke down some of the basics in my gambling 101 piece. Among every category of bets, player props remain the most beatable in the long run. Last year, I hit 59% of my bets for +35 units on the season. The two years prior were much of the same, hitting 57% and 58%, respectively, of my player props for profitable seasons. I’ve already fired off a handful of bets for Week 17 and will be adding more here. If you are a betting subscriber, it is vital to be in our Discord. We have it set up so you can get push notifications for the plays our staff posts—go to role assign, then scroll up and click the little circus emoji under “Prop Stars.” If you want general NFL betting notifications, go to role assign and then click the football emoji.

Week 16 Review: Week 16 was fairly low-volume for me with just 10 plays on the week. I finished +1.24 units on the week on the back of six wins with four losses. With COVID-19 running rampant through the league and players dropping left and right, sportsbooks have been rightfully terrified to post any props. The reasoning makes sense because if all the props are posted and a starter is announced out, at least one of the backups stands to massively benefit. This week will likely be similar in terms of volume. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine started off our week on the wrong foot, catching two passes for 38 yards and busting our under. We got great closing line value on Emmanuel Sanders’s prop of over 29 receiving yards as it closed at 40.5 once both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis were announced out. Sanders finished with just two receptions for 20 yards, while Isaiah McKenzie went berserk, smashing all expectations and going over 100 receiving yards. It wasn’t all disappointing as two of my three “bad QB unders” hit with Zach Wilson and Ian Book falling well short of their passing yard props. As Dan Rivera highlighted in his weekly betting review column, my “bad QB unders” system has gone 13-7 for 5.56 units. Sportsbooks tend to overlook the downside of bad quarterbacks playing against good defenses. They set lines that already look insanely low (sub-200 passing yards) but it doesn’t factor in their uber-low downside. Anyways, I’ve already bet one bad QB under of the week in Discord and the line has moved about 10 yards lower. Like last week, this week's column will be very short with books reluctant to post some of the best props. Onto Week 17…

More Player Props: Ryan Noonan | Sam Hoppen