Breakout Receiver Model: Week 13

Dec 02, 2021
 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 13

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 13 after a fairly strong Week 12. This week's model doesn't include as many top-tier options as in past weeks but there are still plenty of strong breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 12 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 12 XFP-Diff.
Mark Andrews BAL TE 13.4 14.5 1.1
Van Jefferson LA WR 12.1 16.8 4.7
Cole Kmet CHI TE 10.6 10.5 -0.1
Tee Higgins CIN WR 10.2 20.4 10.2
Michael Gallup DAL WR 10.1 13.1 3
Brandin Cooks HOU WR 9.8 12 2.2
Zay Jones LV WR 9.3 8.8 -0.5
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 8.9 14.1 5.2

The model was able to predict Van Jefferson and Tee Higgins’ big days, despite both under-performing expectations for several weeks in a row. Higgins was unstoppable against the Steelers in Week 12, catching six passes for 114 yards and a score, en route to his best fantasy score as a pro. The Cowboys’ two hits, Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup are less impressive considering the fact that the two other targets in the offense were inactive, but they made the most of increased opportunity last Thursday nonetheless. Brandin Cooks, playing the lowly Jets, saw a paltry five targets and only has eight targets over his last two games, but he still managed to find the end zone on one of his three catches, producing his highest fantasy output in four weeks despite just 45 yards receiving.

Misses

Week 12 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 12 XFP-Diff.
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR 16.6 5.4 -11.2
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 15.3 11.1 -4.2
Marquise Brown BAL WR 13.3 9.1 -4.2
DK Metcalf SEA WR 12.6 1.8 -10.8
Mike Gesicki MIA TE 11.3 3.2 -8.1
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 10.6 3.6 -7
Tyler Higbee LA TE 10.6 0.8 -9.8
Rashod Bateman BAL WR 10.1 5.1 -5
Marquez Callaway NO WR 10.1 3.4 -6.7
Marvin Jones JAX WR 9.8 6.3 -3.5
Tre'Quan Smith WR 9.7 5.1 -4.6
Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR 9.2 4.3 -4.9
Bryan Edwards LV WR 8.1 1.7 -6.4
James Washington PIT WR 8 0.8 -7.2
Cameron Brate TB TE 7.4 3.8 -3.6
Dan Arnold JAX TE 7.4 1.4 -6
Mo Alie-Cox IND TE 6.1 1.3 -4.8

We can’t always have weeks like Week 11, when the model seemed to be predicting eruption games with ease, but Tyler Lockett just barely counts as a miss, as his 11.1 fantasy points against Washington last Monday means Lockett has now scored over 25 fantasy points in his last two games, And yet, the model still sees him as under-performing. The same compliments can’t be given to DK Metcalf, who was a non-factor for much of the game last week, and was targeted fewer than five times for the first time since Week 10 of 2020, It was also a particularly tough week for the tight end version of the model, as Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, and Kyle Pitts all had disastrous games, combining for a paltry 7.6 fantasy points, 24.9 combined points below expectation. We’ll give a little bit of leeway to Ja'Marr Chase and Marquise Brown, who drastically disappointed fantasy gamers a week ago, but had teammates who soared well past expectations.

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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