Breakout Receiver Model: Week 13

Dec 02, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 13 after a fairly strong Week 12. This week's model doesn't include as many top-tier options as in past weeks but there are still plenty of strong breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 12 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 12	XFP-Diff.
Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	13.4	14.5	1.1
Van Jefferson	LA	WR	12.1	16.8	4.7
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	10.6	10.5	-0.1
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	10.2	20.4	10.2
Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	10.1	13.1	3
Brandin Cooks	HOU	WR	9.8	12	2.2
Zay Jones	LV	WR	9.3	8.8	-0.5
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	8.9	14.1	5.2

The model was able to predict Van Jefferson and Tee Higgins’ big days, despite both under-performing expectations for several weeks in a row. Higgins was unstoppable against the Steelers in Week 12, catching six passes for 114 yards and a score, en route to his best fantasy score as a pro. The Cowboys’ two hits, Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup are less impressive considering the fact that the two other targets in the offense were inactive, but they made the most of increased opportunity last Thursday nonetheless. Brandin Cooks, playing the lowly Jets, saw a paltry five targets and only has eight targets over his last two games, but he still managed to find the end zone on one of his three catches, producing his highest fantasy output in four weeks despite just 45 yards receiving.

Misses

Week 12 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 12	XFP-Diff.
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	16.6	5.4	-11.2
Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	15.3	11.1	-4.2
Marquise Brown	BAL	WR	13.3	9.1	-4.2
DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	12.6	1.8	-10.8
Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	11.3	3.2	-8.1
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	10.6	3.6	-7
Tyler Higbee	LA	TE	10.6	0.8	-9.8
Rashod Bateman	BAL	WR	10.1	5.1	-5
Marquez Callaway	NO	WR	10.1	3.4	-6.7
Marvin Jones	JAX	WR	9.8	6.3	-3.5
Tre'Quan Smith		WR	9.7	5.1	-4.6
Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	WR	9.2	4.3	-4.9
Bryan Edwards	LV	WR	8.1	1.7	-6.4
James Washington	PIT	WR	8	0.8	-7.2
Cameron Brate	TB	TE	7.4	3.8	-3.6
Dan Arnold	JAX	TE	7.4	1.4	-6
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	6.1	1.3	-4.8

We can’t always have weeks like Week 11, when the model seemed to be predicting eruption games with ease, but Tyler Lockett just barely counts as a miss, as his 11.1 fantasy points against Washington last Monday means Lockett has now scored over 25 fantasy points in his last two games, And yet, the model still sees him as under-performing. The same compliments can’t be given to DK Metcalf, who was a non-factor for much of the game last week, and was targeted fewer than five times for the first time since Week 10 of 2020, It was also a particularly tough week for the tight end version of the model, as Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, and Kyle Pitts all had disastrous games, combining for a paltry 7.6 fantasy points, 24.9 combined points below expectation. We’ll give a little bit of leeway to Ja'Marr Chase and Marquise Brown, who drastically disappointed fantasy gamers a week ago, but had teammates who soared well past expectations.