2021 Travelers Championship Betting Card Preview

Jun 23, 2021

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

The first week of #Fore4Fore was a success. Ron Klos had 14 of the top-25 finishers in the top 25 in his model, including eventual champ Jon Rahm at the top of the model. I picked Louis Oosthuizen pre-tournament at 60/1, and he gave us a 72-hole sweat before falling short again on a Sunday at a major.

Ron Klos's complete Travelers Championship Preview and Final Model

We typically see a less-than-stellar field the week after a major, but that's not the case this week. Five of the world's top-10 ranked players are making the trip to Connecticut for this week's Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. Aside from a Poa Annua mix on the greens, this course couldn't be much different than what we saw last week at Torrey Pines. The Pete Dye-designed track comes in as the second-shortest on Tour this season. TPC River Highlands features tree-lined fairways and small greens, putting an emphasis on accuracy, both off the tee and on approach. Early forecasts show that wind could be a factor on the weekend, which is often the case at this event. Premier ball-striking mixed with a hot putter can turn this into a birdie fest, and a quick glance at past leaderboards proves that any style can win at The Travelers.

I cashed a pre-tournament Dustin Johnson ticket here last year at an absurd 25/1 price, so let's make winners at The Travelers a trend. Let's dig in.

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Past Winners at The Travelers Championship

2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
2019: Chez Reavie (-17)
2018: Bubba Watson (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
2016: Russell Knox (-14)

Corollary Courses:

East Lake
TPC Twin Cities
TPC Deere Run

Player Profile for the week:

SG: T2G
Driving Accuracy
Poa Annua Positive
Par-4 Birdie or Better Rate

For my full card, including any live in-tournament bets, please check out our subscriber-only Discord server. Let's dig in. As always, shop for the best number, but I'll note the best number available at the time of this writing. FanDuel has tremendous odds for us this week, and I'm adjusting accordingly. I'm a bit lighter at the top of the board and in the outright market this week in order to take advantage of the generous finishing position odds FanDuel has posted.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Top Tier

Between seven-to-eight golfers are posted between 12/1 and 25/1, depending on your book, led by Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson. DeChambeau shot a 44 on the back-9 at Torrey Pines on Sunday, shockingly melting when the lights were brightest. Unfortunately, that didn't spurn a discount in the market. Despite this being a 'less-than-driver' course, where golfers often club down, choosing accuracy and, hopefully, fairways instead of distance, DeChambeau has played exceptionally well here, gaining 1.82 strokes on the field over his 20 rounds at TPC River Highlands.

Paul Casey is playing exceptionally well right now. He leads this field in SG: App and SG: T2G over the past six months. If you drill down into a smaller, more recent sample size, he's still at the top of the board. He's popping in a few of Ron's metrics as well, including his new Hole Breakdown model. Casey has three straight top-10 finishes, two of them majors, and I'll back him to do so again this week. He's a bit shorter than I'd like as an outright bet, but FanDuel is more than generous to give us +210 for a top-10 finish.

Mid-Tier

As of this writing, Abraham Ancer projects to be my only outright bet of the week. When the odds came out on Monday morning, I jumped on it right away when FanDuel posted it at +3200. My belief was that the line would move, and it's between +2500 and +2800 now across the market. Ron's model isn't final as of this writing, but my guess is Ancer is among the top three when it's posted. He's shown well on Pete Dye tracks in the past and should be one of the first names that pop into our mind when accuracy off the tee is as important as it is this week. Prior to missing the cut at the Porsche European Open earlier this month, Ancer had a 10-event run that saw him finish no worse than T-26, including three straight top-eight finishes in May. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, a long track poorly suited for his game, but his ball-striking was incredible, so I'm not concerned about his form.

I'm considering making one more outright play, and that's for Scottie Scheffler. Similar to Ancer, Scheffler is too good to not have a win on his resume. I want equity in Scheffler when birdies are available in spades, and that's the case this week. With a third-place finish in 2020 and second so far this season, Scheffler is a Par-4 Birdie or Better machine, getting a birdie or eagle on 20.53% of his Par-4's, more than 4.5% better than the Tour average. He leads the Tour in total driving, a bit of a noisy hybrid stat that combines distance and accuracy. In Scheffler's case, he is above-average in both metrics, so I find it actionable in this instance. He also ranks second in Ron's SG: OTT model and Hole Breakdown model. I have him at +210 on FanDuel for a top-10 finish, and I'll be tracking his outright odds as Thursday's tee time approaches.

Longshots

No pre-tournament outrights for me in this tier, which is unusual, but I'm pivoting my strategy to take advantage of the soft finishing position odds on FanDuel. Here's a quick note on a few guys on my radar:

Emiliano Grillo has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine starts, six of which were top-20 finishes. He leads the field in SG: App over the past 20 rounds, with an affinity for courses with small greens.
Si Woo Kim is a noted Pete Dye specialist with strong showings at The PLAYERS Championship, American Express, and Harbour Town. He's playing the best golf of his career, gaining nearly 0.9 strokes per round on the field more than he did in 2020.
Ryan Moore is one of the Tour's most accurate golfers off the tee and has a strong record on Pete Dye tracks, gaining 1.69 strokes on the field in his 46 career rounds at TPC River Highlands. Moore is top-10 in both fairways gained and SG: OTT with less than a driver. He's a premier wedge player inside of 100 yards, which comes into play this week more than most.

72-hole Matchups

Keep an eye on Discord for these. Very few offerings as of this writing.

Travelers Championship Card

*More picks available on Discord.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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