2021 Travelers Championship Preview

After an exhilarating U.S. Open capped by Jon Rahm’s first major victory, the PGA Tour moves across the country to the Travelers Championship at the TPC River Highlands course in Cromwell, CT. With the last two events being played on mammoth wide-open courses at Congaree and Torrey Pines, moving to a compact tree-lined parkland-style course provides a sharp contrast for players and bettors alike.

*For more Travelers Championship picks, make sure to read Ryan Noonan's Betting Card Preview.

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Course Details and Stats

• Par: 70
• Length: 6,841 yards (6th-shortest)
• Architect: Pete Dye
• Average Score Relative to Par: -0.48 (26th-most difficult)
• Grasses: Fairway - Bent/Poa, Greens - Bent/Poa, Rough - Bluegrass/Fescue 3.5”
• Greens Size - 5,000 square feet (7th-smallest)
• Greens Speed - 12 stimpmeter (Average)
• Field Size - 156 players
• Cut Line - Top 65 players and ties
• Strength of Field: 464 (350 is average)

*My modeling is built around the PGA’s relatively new Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance.

Course and Field Preview

The Travelers Championship is usually one of the most popular PGA events of the year. Players enjoy coming here, even if it is the week directly following a major tournament. Five of the top 10 players in the world are teeing off this week, and altogether, the field has a fairly high Strength of Field rating. The field is led by returning champion, Dustin Johnson, who shot 19-under par last year, defeating Kevin Streelman by one stroke. Other top players in the field include Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Tony Finau.

TPC River Highlands is the sixth-shortest course on Tour, and also ranks 10th in fewest average yards for Driving Distance off the tee. Tight tree-lined doglegs, combined with narrow fairways force players to club down off-the-tee on numerous holes. This leads to a fairly high Driving Accuracy %. Because of these course conditions, TPC River Highlands is known as a “Less-Than-Driver” course. This is why in the model for the week, you will notice that “Driving Distance” has been replaced by “Fairways Gained.” Yet, some of the longer hitters, like Bryson DeChambeau will still try to pound their driver right over the top of some of the doglegs. All types of players have won here in the past, from bombers like Bubba Watson to shorter hitters like Chez Reavie. It sets up for an interesting week with different players using different strategies. One of the main splits in the SG: Off-The-Tee (OTT) model for the week is past performance on other “Less-Than-Driver/Short” courses. This split will show which players have played well off-the-tee at other courses similar to TPC River Highlands.

Once players are hitting their approach shots into the green, the average distance to the hole is only 151 yards. In keeping with the “short course” theme, this is one of the lower yardages played into the greens on Tour all year. This week, we want to pay close attention to the “Approach Proximity” ranges of 175 yards and closer as this is where the majority of shots into the greens will come. Each of the ranges has been built into the model this week and weighted to the exact number of average approach shots from each range. When attacking the greens, players will be shooting towards the seventh-smallest greens on Tour at an average of only 5,000 square feet. This is the main reason why I am weighing my SG: Approach (APP) model higher than any other split for this week. For players to have a birdie opportunity they must be very precise in attacking these flags. Another very helpful split included in the SG: APP model is how players have performed on other “Small Greens” courses.

Even though the Greens in Regulation (GIR) % is higher at this course than on the average Tour course, 3.5" rough is lurking. Though I am not valuing it as much this week compared to OTT and APP, SG: Around the Green (ARG) play, and being able to scramble from the rough will be key to staying on the front page of the leaderboard. The greens are a combination of bentgrass and Poa Annua, which is typical for many northern courses in this part of the country. For the SG: Putting model this week I have combined past bent/poa performance, adjusted (based on field strength) SG: P over the past 36 rounds, and putting average from 0-15 feet. The winner of this tournament typically gets hot with the flat stick. We want to target players trending upward with their putter.

Travelers Championship Models

On Mondays and Tuesdays of each week, I will post each of the individual models on my Twitter feed, with at least one of them posted only here. The final model, which combines all the other metrics and important Strokes Gained splits for the week, will also be exclusively published here.

For this week, I will highlight two new models. As mentioned previously, TPC River Highlands favors short and accurate hitters off-the-tee. The “Less-Than-Driver - Short Course” model measures player performance from other courses that are very similar to our course for this week. This will present a clear picture of who might be able to have success on this course. The “Course History” model takes that a step further by showing who has had the most success at only the TPC River Highlands course going back to 2016.

The other new model for the week is one I have named the “Hole Breakdown” model. I was thinking about how so many “talking heads” were focusing on the 400-450 yard range this week because there are seven holes that will play from that distance. What about the other 11 holes, though? They matter too, even if to a smaller degree. So my goal was to encapsulate the entire course—all 72 holes—by par distance into one complete weighted ranking. Hopefully, this will give a better picture of which players might have success based on their strengths for those yard ranges.

The "Core 4" model for the week will include what I believe are the four most important stats for having success in this week's tournament. For the Travelers Championship, I have selected SG: APP, the SG Hole Breakdown Model, Birdie or Better %, and a longer-term stat, Adjusted Tee-to-Green (based on field strength) over the past six months.

Scoring Model

For this week’s article, along with the final model, I am posting the complete “Scoring Model” here only. For this week, the heaviest weight is on Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds, and also on other “Less-Than-Driver” courses. Other key metrics in the “Scoring” model include Opportunities Gained (birdie putts from 15 feet or closer), Overall Proximity (on approach shots to the hole) and putting success from the key scoring range of 10-20 feet.

Final Travelers Championship Model

Outright Betting Selections

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication. Each play is for one unit unless otherwise noted.

Top Tier

I didn't really step out on any limbs last week by including the top player on my model, U.S. Open winner Jon Rahm, as one of my choices. However, we will always be happy with an outright winner, no matter how short, and will look to continue the success as we try to add on to the 8.81 units gained overall last week.

For the Travelers Championship, I will again select the top player in the weekly model, Paul Casey at +1800 (1u) (DraftKings). He has had great success on this course, finishing in the Top 5 for three of the past four years. He also checks all the boxes in each of the stat categories, with an inconsistent putter the only slight concern. He has the best Tee-to-Green (T2G) game in the field, ranks third in my model for "Less-Than-Driver" courses, and finished first in the "Core 4" most important stats for the week.

Mid-Tier

I am passing on most of the big guns at the Travelers this week, and instead choosing to focus on this intriguing middle tier of players. I will start with the very consistent Scottie Scheffler at +2500 (1u) (DraftKings). He has three Top-8 finishes in the past month and has no real weakness. Last week, his ball-striking went cold but he led the U.S. Open field in putting. He also plays very well on "Less-Than-Driver" courses and ranks second in my "Hole Breakdown" model. Next, I will turn to a popular favorite, Abraham Ancer at +3000 (1u) (FanDuel). Ancer has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he is trending in the right direction with four Top-15 finishes in the past six weeks. Even though he missed the cut at the U.S. Open last week, he led the field in SG: APP per round. Once he catches some consistency with his putter, a victory is sure to follow. Joaquin Niemann +4000 (0.8u) (Points Bet) is another play that stands out to me. With the exception of his around the green play, he is very good in every other area of this game. He finished in fifth place here in 2019. With his potential and talent, he is way too cheap at that price. Next, I will select Harris English at +4500 (0.5u) (DraftKings). He already has a victory this year back in January and is coming off a third-place finish in the U.S. Open. After going through a rough patch, his game is trending back in the right direction and presents a great bargain at that price. For my final pick of the week, I am going with Keegan Bradley at +5000 (0.5u) (Points Bet). The New England native will feel right at home here, as he also has two Top-8 finishes over the last few years. He ranks ninth overall in my model and has high rankings in OTT and T2G. He's also 10th in both the "Scoring" and "Safety" models, signals we are looking for when selecting potential winners.

Finishing Positions

Top 10 - 1 unit each

• Paul Casey +210 (FanDuel)
• Kevin Streelman +360 (FanDuel)
• Patrick Cantlay +210 (FanDuel)

Top 20 - 1 unit each

• Brian Harman +110 (BetMGM)
• Patrick Reed +150 (Points)
• Scottie Scheffler +135 (FanDuel)
• Abraham Ancer +175 (FanDuel)
• Keegan Bradley +250 (FanDuel)
• Si Woo Kim +275 (Points)
• Joaquin Niemann +230 (FanDuel)
• Harris English +190 (FanDuel)
• Sam Burns +300 (FanDuel)
• Russell Henley +275 (BetMGM)

Top 30 - 1 unit each

*All bets are FanDuel specific.

• Doc Redman +185
• Rickie Fowler +190
• Cameron Tringale +200
• Emiliano Grillo +210
• Chris Kirk +260
• Talor Gooch +320
• Doug Ghim +400

Top 40 - 1 unit each

*All bets are FanDuel specific.

• Ian Poulter +135
• Aaron Wise +150
• Harold Varner +155
• Patton Kizzire +220
• David Lipsky +260
• Vincent Whaley +280

Round 1 3-balls - 1 unit each

• Keegan Bradley +160 over Justin Rose and Carlos Ortiz (DraftKings)
• Patrick Cantlay +115 over Marc Leishman and Garrick Higgo (PointsBet)
• Chris Kirk +138 over Rory Sabbatini and Cameron Percy (DraftKings)
• Sam Burns +170 over Jason Day and Brendan Todd (DraftKings)
• Paul Casey +125 over Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson (BetMGM)
• Si Woo Kim +120 over Dylan Frittelli and Sung Kang (BetMGM)
• Talor Gooch +135 over Henrik Norlander and Peter Malnati (DraftKings)
• Emiliano Grillo +120 over Danny Lee and D.J. Trahan (FanDuel)

Parlay (Pays +213)

• Scottie Scheffler -125 over J.B. Holmes and Scott Piercy (FanDuel)
• Joaquin Niemann -135 over Tyler Duncan and Kevin Stadler

For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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