Betting on Teams' First Picks: Eagles, Patriots and Colts

Apr 14, 2020
Betting on Teams' First Picks: Eagles, Patriots and Colts

Draftkings Sportsbook is offering the ability to bet on exactly what position the Eagles, Colts, and Patriots select with their first overall pick—all other teams only have bets available for either offense or defense. This will discuss the best values for each of those bets.

Exact Position of Eagles' First Drafted Player

I think the Eagles are taking a receiver in the first round and the boost available at -121 is one of the best values on the board. Breaking down the depth chart for the Eagles, they have Alshon Jeffrey who is 30 years old and coming off a Lisfranc injury and questionable to start the season healthy, if he is even on the roster. DeSean Jackson is now 33 years old and hasn’t played a full season since 2013. Last year’s second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside played 66.1% of the snaps and finished the season with just 10 receptions. Simply put, he was one of the worst receivers in football, averaging a putrid 0.67 yards per route run. Greg Ward was a college quarterback who was forced into action and should in no way be counted on to be a significant contributor.

The Eagles have one of the league's best rosters but a massive hole at receiver. They need not one, but two receivers and they are likely to address just that with the 21st overall pick. Wide receiver is the heavy favorite at -150 with cornerback next at +400. On other sportsbooks, you can bet on the exact player the Eagles draft and receivers come in as the six most likely players they take. The Eagles are also a trade-up candidate to grab one of the big three rookie receivers. At -121 odds boost that is a 54.8% implied probability. It should be closer to a 70% probability and the value is too good to pass up. This is at least a one, if not two-unit wager.

Position Odds
Wide Receiver -150
Cornerback +400
Linebacker +450
Safety +700
Defensive Lineman +1600
Offensive Lineman +2200
Running Back +3300
Quarterback +15000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +25000
Tight End +25000

Exact Position of Colts' First Drafted Player

The Colts traded away the 13th overall pick for DeForest Buckner and signed QB Philip Rivers. That tells us they are ready to go all in and with the 34th overall pick they will want a day one impact player. The position with the most talent on the board is wide receiver and the Colts have a need for another playmaker outside of T.Y. Hilton and last year's second-round pick Parris Campbell. Players such as Jaelan Reagor, Brandon Aiyuck, Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims, and Laviska Shenault all have a chance to be on the board at 34. I simply don’t think they take a quarterback here.

Jordan Love has an over/under at pick 19.5 and while I think he goes over, he is still -2,000 to go in the first round on DraftKings. Cornerback at +1000 may be worth a 0.1 unit sprinkle as they could beef up the secondary with the loss of Pierre Desire and teams are all over the map on the 3-5 cornerback range.

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Exact Position of Patriots' First Drafted Player

The Patriots pick is very difficult to predict as there are multiple ways it could go. They are said to be big on Justin Herbert and could look to trade up if he slips, but with only one top-86 pick, a trade back is more likely. With so much movement possible and a roster with multiple needs, treading lightly here is the right way to go. While the Patriots have a glaring need for a receiver, the class is very deep and they took one in the first round last season. Another key point is that the Patriots are +350 to take a defensive lineman and +550 to take a linebacker. You may think you won your +350 bet on draft day if the Patriots selected edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, but per DraftKings he is considered a linebacker. If you have a specific target in mind, make sure to clarify his position.

In a trade back scenario, I think Draftkings linebacker position includes more true edge pass rushers than defensive lineman and +550 is the better value bet with potential targets Zack Baun or Terrell Lewis as trade-back targets. While there may be slight value in the number, this situation is nothing but a question mark, and with so much uncertainty, this is a stay-away for me.

Pick Summary

Prop Pick Odds Suggested Units Limit (Bet down to)
Exact Position of Eagles' First Drafted Player Wide Receiver -121 1.21 -165 Bet Now!
Exact Position of Colts' First Drafted Player Wide Receiver +175 0.50 +160 Bet Now!
Exact Position of Colts' First Drafted Player Cornerback +1000 0.10 +900 Bet Now!

Note: All advice in this article is based on odds available on the date of publishing.

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