Streaming Defenses: Week 8 Targets
As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 8.
All three of our picks put up poor showings last week: each underperformed our forecasts for sacks, interceptions and points allowed. While none had a negative score, they all put up scores from the predictable elements that were below average (and none lucked out with defensive touchdowns or safeties).
I take some solace from the fact that we did anticipate that this might be a bad week. Last week's article contained an explicit warning with my suspicions that the result could be poor.
Last week's results add more evidence that extremely high forecasts — say, those above 6.5 points — are much more predictive than simply above-average forecasts (say, above 5 points). We'll want to keep that in mind going forward.
Week 8 Projections
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