Streaming Defenses: Week 7 Targets

Oct 15, 2019
Streaming Defenses: Week 7 Targets

As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 7.

Other Week 7 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

Our top pick last week, the Redskins, delivered, giving us five sacks, two interceptions and 16 points allowed. All were slightly ahead of projections, so they beat our forecast of 7.7 points (from predictable elements) by over two points.

The Broncos, who were our second pick, crushed. They put up seven sacks, three interceptions and pitched a shut out in points. Their final point total was 23 points, well ahead of the 6.6 that we forecasted.

Our final pick — after accounting for having Sam Darnold rather than Luke Falk under center — was the Cowboys. They slightly underperformed in each of the projected areas and put up only four points versus 6.5 we estimated.

As in past weeks, two of our three picks outperformed projections, but in general, the results were better than usual, with even our underperforming pick still giving an acceptable score. Also as in past weeks, it was the pick with the lowest projection that underperformed, adding yet more evidence that high projections strongly correlate with high scores.

Week 6 Projections

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