DraftKings Week 14 GPP Breakdown
As we get into December, we're starting to see more games with low over/unders and also more weather concerns. This slate feels similar to Week 11, when there were also numerous weather concerns and only 10 WRs ended up scoring 20+ DK points, the lowest amount of the season (only 10 WRs hit 20+ last week as well). From Week 4, when bye weeks started, to Week 10, an average of 13.4 WRs per week scored 20+. As we go forward, I think it makes the most sense to build around RBs and use them in the flex more often than not.
Kirk Cousins $6,300 @ PHI
Cousins is fifth in PPG on the main slate (21.8) and will face an Eagles defense that has allowed 313+ yards and multiple TDs to opposing QBs in each of the past two weeks.
Andrew Luck $6,900 vs. HOU
Luck is a home favorite with the second-highest implied total on the slate (26.5) against a Texans defense that has allowed three passing TDs in two of its last three games. Luck is averaging 325.2 total yards and 2.2 total TDs per game at home this season.
Colin Kaepernick $5,800 vs. NYJ
Kaepernick was playing well before last week’s disaster in the snow, and now gets to return home as a favorite against a checked-out Jets defense that allowed four passing TDs last week and is traveling across country on a short week.
Philip Rivers $6,600 @ CAR
Rivers has weekly 300-yard, three-TD upside and will face a Panthers defense ranked 24th in QB aFPA in the game with the second-highest over/under of the week (49.5).
Jameis Winston $6,700 vs. NO
Winston is a home favorite against the Saints and has the highest implied total on the slate (27). The Saints have allowed multiple TDs in two-thirds of their games, a 300-yard passer in half of their games, and are ranked 27th in QB aFPA.
DeMarco Murray $7,000 vs. DEN
Murray is a home favorite against a Broncos defense ranked just 17th in RB aFPA. Murray is ranked in the the top-five in DK PPG (22.1) and touches per game (22.8) this season. His price has come down $1,200 over the past two weeks.
Bell leads all RBs in per-game touches (27.0) and targets (8.6) and has scored 24+ DK points in 7-of-9 games. He’ll likely be used extremely heavily with snow in the forecast in Buffalo.
David Johnson $9,800 vs. WAS
Johnson has scored 27+ DK points in seven of his last eight games, including 33+ in five of those. Only WR Julian Edelman is averaging more targets than Johnson’s 11.3 over the last three weeks.
Rob Kelley $4,200 @ PHI
Kelley is averaging 19.3 touches per game since taking over as the starter and is a road favorite against an Eagles defense ranked 21st in RB aFPA.
Frank Gore $4,800 vs. HOU
Gore is averaging 19.3 touches per game over the last four weeks and is a home favorite against a Texans defense ranked 28th in RB aFPA.
Carlos Hyde $4,900 vs. NYJ
The Jets have a good run defense, but are ranked just 16th in RB aFPA and will be traveling across the country on a short week. The 49ers remain committed to Hyde to the tune of an average of 21.0 carries-plus-targets over the past three weeks.
Jonathan Stewart $5,400 vs. SD
Stewart is a home favorite against a Chargers defense that is ranked 26th in RB aFPA. Since Week 8, the Panthers have a 16-1 run/pass ratio on first or second down on the 10-yard line and in.
Jeremy Hill $5,800 @ CLE
Hill is averaging 21.5 touches in the two games Giovani Bernard has missed so far and will be busy in the snow against a Browns defense ranked 30th in RB aFPA.
Odell Beckham $8,000 vs. DAL
A pivot off Mike Evans, Beckham is at his lowest price since Week 14 of 2014. The Cowboys have allowed at least one WR to catch 8+ passes in each of their last four games and seven of their last eight.
Michael Thomas $6,700 @ TB
Whereas Thomas made for an easy fade last week at high ownership in a game where the Saints were likely to look to Brandin Cooks, it’s now time to jump back on in what Vegas projects to be a close, high-scoring game (Saints +2, 51). Thomas leads the Saints in per-game receptions (5.8), yards (79.3), and TDs (0.58), and will see a reduction in ownership after burning people last week.
T.Y. Hilton $7,500 vs. HOU
Some will see Houston is fourth versus WRs and hesitate, but the Texans have allowed eight catches and a TD to a WR in three of their last four games. In four games as a home favorite this season, Hilton is averaging 130.3 receiving and and 0.75 TDs.
Tyrell Williams $6,100 @ CAR
Only four WRs have outscored Williams’ 20.8 DraftKings PPG over the past four weeks. He’ll face a Panthers defense that is ranked dead last in WR aFPA.
Jarvis Landry $5,600 vs. ARI
With Patrick Peterson likely matched up on Devante Parker and the Cardinals ranked third in RB aFPA, this sets up as another matchup where targets are likely to get funneled to landry in the slot. The Cardinals are ranked 24th in WR aFPA, allowing the most production from the slot.
WR2/3/FLEX (Under $5,500)
Robby Anderson $3,000 @ SF
Anderson consistently outran coverage last week and QB Bryce Petty seemed to lock onto him, as Petty was responsible for most of Anderson’s 12 targets last week. Anderson has been targeted on a team-leading 31% of Petty's throws and has accounted for a team-leading 44% of Petty's yardage. The undrafted speedster has topped 60 yards in two of his last three games (both with Petty) and will face a 49ers defense ranked 27th in WR aFPA.
Taylor Gabriel $4,300 @ LA
With Julio Jones (toe) and Mohamed Sanu (gorin) banged up and missing practice time, Gabriel will get more burn with the first-team and could be a larger part of the game plan than usual. He has five catches and/or a TD in each of his last five games despite playing just 49% of the snaps during that span. The Rams are ranked 30th in WR aFPA.
Kenny Britt $5,200 @ ATL
Since Britt’s breakout game against the Lions in Week 6, only 12 WRs have averaged more PPG than him (17.3). The Falcons are without their top cornerback, Desmond Trufant, and are ranked 19th in WR aFPA.
DeSean Jackson $5,200 @ PHI
Jackson is averaging 25.3 yards per reception since returning from injury in Week 11 and the Eagles have allowed at least one 40-yard pass play in each of their last six games.
Lance Kendricks $2,800 @ NE
Kendricks didn’t work out last week, but since Week 7, Kendricks is seventh among TEs in targets per game (7.0) and will face a Falcons defense ranked 20th in TE aFPA.
Jason Witten $3,100 @ NYG
Many DFS players will hesitate to use Witten coming off a zero-target game, but Witten is now at his lowest salary ever on DraftKings. He’ll face a Giants defense that is ranked 28th in TE aFPA and has given up an averages of 100.2 yards per game to TEs over the last five weeks, most in the league by a wide margin.
C.J. Fiedorowicz $3,900 @ IND
Only five TEs have averaged more targets per game than Fiedorowicz since Week 7 (7.3). He’ll face a Colts defense ranked 26th in TE aFPA.
Cameron Brate $4,100 vs. NO
Brate make for a cheap leverage play off Mike Evans. Brate has only two less red zone targets (13) than Evans and will likely be heavily involved this week with the teams other WRs banged up. The Saints are ranked 24th in TE aFPA.
San Francisco 49ers $2,600 vs. NYJ
The 49ers are a home favorite against a Jets team that will be traveling across the country on a short week. The Jets will start a raw second-year QB in his second start in Brycne Petty and are ranked 26th in DEF aFPA.
Cincinnati Bengals $3,500 @ CLE
The Bengals are six-point favorites against an 0-12 Browns squad ranked dead last in DEF aFPA. Each of the last three opponents of the Browns have scored 14+ DK points.
Detroit Lions $3,600 vs. CHI
The Lions are a home favorite with the largest spread of the week (-8) against a Bears squad with the week's lowest implied total (17.75). Thanks to their keepaway style, Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league since Week 4 (18.44).
Minnesota Vikings $3,900 @ JAC
The Vikings are in a similar position as the Broncos last week, which proved to be fruitful: they are tied with Denver in DK points per game (10.8) and will face Blake Bortles and a Jaguars offense ranked 28th in DEF aFPA.