Streaming Tight Ends: Week 1 Targets

Sep 06, 2016

So you missed out on a top tier TE, or purposely chose to wait until later rounds with the strategy of streaming the position weekly? You’ve come to the right place. With most redrafts in the rearview mirror, it’s time to assess your lineup and see if the TE you drafted is worthy of playing Week 1, or if you are better off grabbing someone off the waiver wire who has an above average matchup which can hopefully translate to TE1 production.

For streaming purposes, 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) is a metric we rely heavily on to determine weekly matchup strength. Since aFPA requires a minimum of three to four weeks of data to provide truly reliable results, in these early weeks, streaming options will be selected based on a combination of opponents’ predicted fantasy points allowed, usage and last season’s numbers.

The goal is to roster a player that is going to return TE1 fantasy points and last year this methodology did just that -- our optimal streaming TE posted 13.9 PPR points per game in 2015, which equated to overall TE7 numbers on the season.

In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Week 1 Streaming Targets:

Clive Walford (OAK) @ New Orleans

Only owned in 14% of Yahoo Leagues, there’s an excellent chance that Walford is sitting on the waiver wire ready to be plucked and played to start off the season. The Raiders have a really nice matchup against the Saints whose defense is projected to give up 18.1 schedule-adjusted PPR fantasy points to the TE position this season, the worst in the NFL.

When looking at the 4for4 Player Snap App, Walford was on the field for 41% of the Raiders snaps last season, which he converted to a very respectable .18 fantasy points per snap (FP/snap). Now in his second year in the system, look for Walford’s snaps to increase in 2016 as he gets more comfortable with quarterback Derek Carr.

The Oakland/Saints game currently boasts an over/under of 51 indicating it will most likely be a shootout. This bodes well for the Raiders’ potential offensive production, meaning Carr’s receivers should go off, including Walford.