Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Vegas 84: Ankalaev vs Walker 2

After a holiday layoff, fight fans can rejoice as the first UFC event of the year is upon us. Magomedov Ankalaev takes on Johnny Walker in a rematch that ended in a confusing No Contest due to an illegal knee. Flyweight title contenders Matheus Nicolas and Manel Kape were set for a rematch, but that fight was scrapped after Kape failed to make weight. While this card should be entertaining, there are some wide lines that will lead many fans to search for value.

Click here to access a full Betting Subscription for only $19.99!

Double your next bet at any sportsbook or DFS site for FREE with EDGE Boost! Repay with no interest or hidden fees over 4 weeks. Exclusive to our Betting subscribers, sign up now, and EDGE Boost will increase your starting capital from $50 to $500 with a max limit of $2,500!

UFC Vegas 84 Best Bets

[subscribe_betting]

Ankalaev/Walker over 1.5 rounds + Waldo Cortez-Acosta to win (-121, FanDuel)

Fight Breakdown: Magomedov Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker

This fight had a confusing finish in the first meeting after Ankalaev landed an illegal knee, and Walker seemingly refused to cooperate with officials during the stoppage. Doctors and officials called the fight and deemed it a “no contest” which leads us to this rematch. Walker is a physical specimen who has all the tools to become a champion. He has been on the wrong side of some bad knockouts and has a tendency to put himself in precarious situations. After a bad streak, he has had a resurgence and was even landing some solid leg kicks in the first fight.

Ankalaev fights with a good fight IQ and a methodical pace. Ankalaev should arguably be the champion right now after a controversial fight against Jan Blachowicz. The only blemish on Ankalaev’s record is a last-second submission loss to Paul Craig, and a win here figures to set him up for another shot at the title. Ankalaev is a strong favorite, and our projections like him to win this fight over 70% of the time. His patience and grappling should be able to stall Walker from being overly aggressive in the striking exchanges. Ankalaev has a 50% finish rate and is patient in finding openings. Combine this with Walker vowing to be more controlled in this second fight, and I project this one to go over 1.5 rounds.

Fight Breakdown: Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortez-Acosta

The money line for this fight is un-bettable, and it's a direct reflection of where these two fighters are at this point in their careers. Arlovski is an aging veteran on the wrong side of 40. While that plays better at heavyweight than it does in other divisions, bettors rarely find success backing fighters with his profile. Arlovski has solid striking, and his speed still holds up against slower opponents. The issue for Arlovski is that his durability simply can’t be trusted at this point in his career.

No one expects Cortes-Acosta to be in title contention any time soon or ever. He has, however, submitted a good showing of who he is as a fighter at this point in his UFC career. He has decent athleticism and manages distance and range well. He fights behind and jabs and likes to use his leg kicks to dictate exchanges from the outside. He darts in behind the jab to throw the overhand right, and I expect him to connect on it at some point in this fight. Cortes-Acosta has yet to be challenged on the ground and has shown little ability to check leg kicks in his fights. Neither of those things figure to come into play, as I expect this fight to take place standing where Cortes-Acosta projects to be the younger and more durable fighter. It’s tough seeing a scenario outside of a flash KO where Cortes-Acosta blows this fight.

Risk: 1.21 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable down to -135)

Farid Basharat to win by Decision (-135, DraftKings)

Fight Breakdown: Farid Basharat vs Taylor Lapilus

This is a fight between two talented prospects. Lapilus has more experience and has never been finished. He uses his footwork well in setting up his strikes and then again upon exiting his combos. The problem for Lapilus is that he has been taken down by fighters with less skill than Basharat. I expect Lapilus to try and dictate the striking with his movement in hopes of making it difficult for Basharat to take him down.

Basharat is a fighter that does everything well. He has the ability to develop into a title contender. Basharat is relaxed as a striker with a kick-heavy approach where he mixes in his entries with well-timed takedowns. I expect Basharat to start the fight off with striking exchanges until he decides to take the easiest path to victory. The striking in this fight will be close, but Basharat will have the better grappling and control on the ground. He will have to work for the takedown but should ultimately be able to get it. Basharat has the skill to win this fight wherever it takes place, and I think he gets the job done via a decision against a fighter in Lapilus that has never been finished. Our model has this fight going to decision 56% of the time, which is in line with this line sitting at -135.

Risk: 1 unit at DraftKings to win .74 unit

DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Vegas 84

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Jean Silva $9600 - Silva is making his debut, and the price here isn’t a reflection of his talent but more of an indictment on his opponent. Westin Wilson likely isn’t a UFC-level talent and offers little on the feet with his karate-based striking. He is long and will throw up some submissions off his back, but that is his only threat. There is little danger for Silva while this fight is on the feet, and most people see this fight ending via knockout.

Magomed Ankalaev $9400 - Ankalaev has one loss on his record, and it was by a last-second submission to Paul Craig. It’s hard to envision that happening again. Ankalaev is the A-side in a 5-round main event. He has finishing upside, but the fight may have to go into the later stanzas for it to happen as he methodically picks apart Walker. Ankalaev is one of the safer plays of the favorites in this price range.

Tom Nolan $9200 - Nolan is all gas and no brakes as he comes forward with all offense. Doing so can leave himself open if he gets reckless. A young fighter making their UFC debut warrants caution, but Nolan is the favorite against Nicolas Motta, who has looked lost recently and has been finished. Nolan is an option if you can’t get to the two fighters above.

Midrange Plays ($8100 - $8900)

Ricky Simon $8600 - Simon has been knocking on the door to be a contender for a while but just hasn’t been able to get over the hump. He was embarrassed by Song Yadong in his last fight, but that is nothing to fret about. Simon can have trouble with high-level strikers, but that isn’t the case in this fight. Bautista has had to rely on his wrestling as fights have gotten tougher, but that may not be an option in this fight as Simon is the better wrestler. I expect Simon to be the stronger fighter while dictating the pace with relentless wrestling that should score well over three rounds.

Jim Miller $8200 - Jim Miller is a legend in the sport. His longevity is unrivaled, and he is getting another veteran in Gabriel Benitez. Benitez is a kill-or-be-killed fighter that is willing to strike and put himself in danger. He has been finished six times out of his 10 losses. This will be a close fight but one that I expect Miller to win and have the grappling advantage in.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Phil Hawes $7900 - Hawes has all the tools you would look for in a fighter. He is athletic with good striking and wrestling. The issue is that his lights can get turned out with the softest of jabs. Bruno Ferreira hits hard but just recently had his lights turned out as well. This is a fight between two guys that have questionable chins. Hawes’ chin is arguably the worst in the UFC but his skill set is vastly superior to Ferreira. Hawes will be live for the upset as long as he fights smart and avoids the big shot. He could score well if he decides to use his wrestling.

Johnny Walker $6800 - Johnny Walker has the ability to knock out Ankalaev. His scoring ceiling is as high as his floor is low. At this price, it's more about getting a 5-round fight at this price point. Walker is a boom-or-bust play with red flags all over the place. In a 5-round fight, he scored 19.2 points against Thiago Santos. If you pair Walker with Ankalaev, then you are freeing up salary and guaranteeing a win in your lineup.

Andrei Arlovski $6700 - There aren’t many live dogs or value plays on this card. Above, I state that I think Arlovski is long in the tooth, and I fully expect Cortes-Acosta to win the fight. This play is simply about salary and hopes that we can get 30 points or so out of Arlovski. He could absolutely get starched in the first round, but the other fighters in this price range have low floors as well. Arlovski has fought well in the Apex, and if he could somehow pull out another split-decision win, that could put you in a position to win. If not you got what you paid for at a basement price.

Swing Fight

Matthew Semelsberger $8400 vs Preston Parsons $7800 - Picking the winner of this fight could put you over the top. Semelsberger has some of the best power in the division, having dropped multiple opponents. The hole in his game is his grappling. While he often uses his athleticism to defend takedowns, his grappling skills are underdeveloped. Parsons will have the advantage in that department and could score well should he avoid the big strikes and use his grappling to wear down and control Semelsberger. This fight is essentially a pick 'em, and our model favors Parsons slightly. For DFS purposes, I would lean slightly in Semelsberger’s favor due to the power and scoring upside. This fight isn’t a must-play option, but it would certainly put you over the top should you pick it correctly.

Cash Game Lineup:

Jean Silva $9600

Magomed Ankalaev $9400

Tom Nolan $9200

Jim Miller $8200

Johnny Walker $6800

Andrei Arlovski $6700

UFC Vegas Projections and Fight Picks