Jared Goff completed 370-of-552 (67%) passes for 3,952 yards (7.2 Y/A), 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions as well as 99 rushing yards on and four touchdowns on 99 attempts (1.9 Y/A). While he’ll no longer be in a quarterback-friendly scheme with Sean McVay, Goff now joins a Lions team with a porous defense. It’s likely that Goff will have to air it out in order to keep pace, especially since the Lions project to be playing from behind often as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Goff finished as QB22 in fantasy points per game last season, but this projected uptick in volume could help him ascend to the Top-18. We also have to consider that Goff will be playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. The Lions added blue-chip tackle prospect Penei Sewell in the first round to pair with tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow. This could help create a consistently clean pocket for Goff. Having said that, this is a quarterback with a narrow range of outcomes with limited upside due to his uninspiring supporting cast and inferior offensive scheme.
While tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift are certified studs on upward trajectories, the wide receiver room consists of journeymen Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman as well as fourth-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions did not do enough to address the losses of free agent wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. It’s going to be difficult for this team to make big plays downfield, which makes it likely that we could see Goff become a checkdown machine, peppering targets towards Hockenson and Swift. At the same time, the high volume should allow Goff to come relatively close to his current ADP. This isn’t a player who is at risk of losing his starting role, as the team’s backup quarterback is David Blough.
2021 Bottom Line
Goff is currently being drafted as QB31 (208.6 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, which makes him a solid value at this price. While the Lions' offense will be inefficient, there will likely be enough passing volume for Goff to outperform his draft cost. At the same time, this isn’t a quarterback with a high ceiling. Goff is strictly a floor pick to help balance your roster, working well if you take a shot on an upside rookie quarterback who might not start until later in the season, such as Justin Fields and Trey Lance.