DraftKings Week 16 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks
Week 16 will always be more about redraft than daily, but it still marks the second-to-last main slate of the year in DFS, so let's get to it.
Saturday-only Slate Breakdown
With Baltimore hosting Indianapolis and Minnesota traveling to Green Bay, both games on the slate feature a team that needs to win out to ensure a best-case playoff scenario going up against an opponent with nothing to play for. This discrepancy in motivation means the safest bet is to trust the Vegas lines in terms of roster construction and to load up on Ravens and Vikings.
The surest bets here are Adam Thielen, Alex Collins, Jack Doyle, and Frank Gore. Thielen averages the most DraftKings points per game (17.0) of any non-QB on the slate and has a matchup against Green Bay’s bottom-five defense in WR aFPA. Collins is a home-favorite RB who averages 16.2 touches and 4.2 targets in five games since the bye. Doyle is tied for fifth in the league in targets per game (7.2) and matches up against a Baltimore defense ranked 29th in TE aFPA and is the fifth-strongest TE funnel. Gore is a low-ceiling, high-floor play projected for more volume than anyone else in his salary range.
It makes sense to go with Latavius Murray over Jerick McKinnon ($5,500) in a lineup featuring Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, but not Case Keenum. And given that Joe Flacco is in the lineup, Mike Wallace ($5,400), who commands a team-leading 44% air yard market share and 22% target market share since the Week 10 bye, makes sense over Randall Cobb due to the correlation of QB production and WR production.
The highest-upside swap you can make, though, is Case Keenum ($6,700) for Flacco and the Vikings D/ST ($3,000) in place of the Ravens' unit. In that case, it makes sense to keep Cobb in over Wallace due to the correlation of opposing passing games. Correlation would also point to going with McKinnon (who is fresh off a 7-catch, 114-receiving-yard game last week) over Murray.
Here are some other notes on each offense: