NFL Week 3 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Sep 25, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week 1 of the NFL season set a lofty bar that, sadly, Week 2 did not quite reach. The early slate on Sunday had some sloppy, ill-disciplined football that did not reflect on the quality of the season’s opening weekend. Even sadder, we could only manage 1-2 with our player props; let’s recap...

Week 2 Recap (1-2), Overall (4-2):

I thought we were going to get a void on our Saquon Barkley bet. He got a stinger on his first carry of the game and subsequently missed the entire first half. And then... he comes out for the second half and does nothing. Would he have got to 80 rushing yards? Maybe not; the Eagles' offensive line still looked sub-par, and that’ll be one to keep a keen eye on going forward. Baker Mayfield fell short of two passing touchdowns in his revenge game v the Browns (side note: the Buccaneers look very out of sorts.) Parker Washington cashed our only winner of the week; he really is the man. Say goodbye, adios, sayonara to his receiving line ever being in the 50s again...

Week 3:

Alright, Week 3. We have a ton of injuries to navigate, some shock results to overreact to, and a slew of props to tuck in to. I’m going back to data and stats this week. The Mayfield bet was fanciful (by the way, he absolutely should have found Emeka Egbuka in the endzone on the 4th-and-11 final play of the game), but it didn’t really meet my criteria for a ‘well-researched’ pick. Anyway, without further ado, shall we?

Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Completions v Buffalo (-133)

Risk 1.33 units to win 1 unit.

I know, I know. The Chargers have been a bit of a dumpster fire to open the season – and that is putting it politely. And even though they are heavy underdogs in Buffalo, which actually works in our favour (more on that later), this could be a bit of a smash spot. Both Jared Goff and CJ Stroud cleared 20 completions v the Bills in their games this season, achieving passer ratings of well over 100.

The Chargers are 7.5-point underdogs heading into this one, after consecutive weeks of favouritism. They are expected to trail for most of the game, which should lead to a pass-heavy game script. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has yet to get sophomore running back Omarion Hampton going, and the Chargers are now down run-blocking tight end Charlie Kolar too. The best way for the Chargers to get at the Bills' defense is through the air; neither the Lions nor the Bills saw success on the ground.

20 completions is not a lot for a quarterback of Herbert’s quality. The main question here is, well, can the Chargers sink any lower? In my opinion, no. Two galling losses require a comeback in the next game, regardless of the opponent. The Chargers’ pass rate over expected (PROE) is -11.1%, a number that drastically needs to change. Chasing points for most of the game should lead to a much-increased pass rate compared to recent weeks – Jim Harbaugh, it’s time to let Herbert do his thing.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 11.5 Carries v Jacksonville (-118)

Risk 1.18 units to win 1 unit.

Henderson returned to action last week as the Patriots soundly beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3. He out-snapped incumbent RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson, finishing with 16 carries for 76 yards, good enough for 4.8 yards-per-carry. Henderson had a middling rookie year, some good, some not so good. Truthfully, it is down to him to make the starting running back spot his own. Stevenson has chronic fumbling issues, and Henderson’s blistering speed and shiftiness make him hard to bring down.

Jacksonville finds themselves as 3-point favourites in this one, which I’m not totally sure I can get behind. The Patriots ran the Seahawks very close in Week 1, and I’d expect them to get the job done here as well. With that being said, the Jaguars’ run defense is stout – neither the Browns nor the Broncos had much success on the ground. I wouldn’t read too much into any expected game script, though; the Patriots are underdogs but will run the ball when necessary - especially as they’re down star wide receiver AJ Brown.

This is a bit of an upside play, mainly giving way to the fact that Henderson played 13 more snaps than Stevenson last week. When Henderson is on the field, the Patriots’ rush rate is 52%, which would be the second highest in the league. They also post a higher success rate and expected points added per play (EPA/P) with the sophomore back on the field. This offense is likely to follow the hot hand; it looks like Henderson is in the driver’s seat, and let’s hope he cashes in.

Note: this is a ‘Milestone’ bet. His line is 10.5 at -146, but we can do better than that, can’t we?

Javonte Williams Under 58.5 Rushing Yards v Baltimore (-118)

Risk 1.18 units to win 1 unit.

Through two games, Williams has not looked great. After a terrific first season in Dallas where he amassed 11 touchdowns and 1,200 yards on the ground, Williams is averaging just three yards-per-carry and leads the league in failing to gain any yardage on his runs (29%). While there is little competition behind Williams, the Cowboys’ 68% pass rate is top five in the NFL. They find themselves as 3.5-point underdogs against the Ravens in Brazil on Sunday, and we’ll dive into why the neutral turf might not suit running backs.

The field at the Maracana on Sunday will be a natural grass surface. There have, however, been ongoing concerns regarding whether the pitch will be totally playable. Two soccer teams regularly play at the stadium, and Rio has seen heavy rainfall over the last six weeks. It sounds like it’s going to be awfully difficult to run or even move with the ball. Obviously, this is just forecasting. It’s hard to tell what the field is like without being there, but it certainly doesn’t appear to be optimal.

Williams is averaging -0.08 expected points added per rush (epa/rush), -0.07 rushing yards over expected, and his 41% success rate is good enough only for 22nd best in the league. He faces a Ravens defense giving up just 3.8 yards-per-carry, despite Jonathan Taylor finding a lot of success in Week One. I’m fully expecting Dallas to be playing from behind and operating their pass-heavy offense, with the conditions for running backs less than favourable.

That’s our three for this week. Let’s hope for better luck this week and fewer injuries. If all goes wrong, we’ll always have Week 4... As always, thanks for reading and let’s have ourselves a Sunday. Let’s go!

Note: all odds correct at the time of posting