Jake's Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets
Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
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Week 5: 4-2, +$173
Overall: 21-13, +$619
14.54% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals
Week 5 Recap
It feels good to have another positive week despite the lower volume (6 plays). Week 5 was the first bye week, and multiple teams had pending injuries throughout the week, which led to the books being a little stingy with lining guys, which is why I only had six plays this week. We had some super strong reads this week, like Thielen u1.5 receptions (played only 14 snaps and nine of which came in the 1st Quarter when Addison was benched), Dortch u14.5 receiving yards (ran only four routes), and Kenn Walker u2.5 receptions (ran only ten routes and Charb was again Seattle's preferred receiving back). The Wentz loss was tough, considering we got 20 yards of CLV, but the Vikings' run game struggled, and both their backs fumbled the ball, which led to more Wentz drop-backs and inevitably led to the loss on the game-winning drive. Ridley u3.5 receptions was a tough loss. Ridley entered the 4th quarter with only two catches, and I played the Ridley bet because it seemed like there was a good chance he would be limited and possibly pulled late in the game. Demercado had a chance late in the 3Q to walk into the endzone and put the Cards up 28-6 with just a quarter left which is when we could've seen Ridley get pulled with the game out of reach, instead Demercado dropped the ball and let it bounce out the back of the endzone which allowed the Titans to get right back into the game and the Titans then had one of the wildest comebacks in recent memory. Our last bet was Devin Singletary, which played out just how I thought. Singletary got the 5-7 carries and went over by a few yards.
Week 6 Bets
Joe Flacco OVER 203.5 Passing Yards (-114 FD/Builder play to 208.5)
Flacco is making his Bengals debut after being traded just two days ago. The Packers defense is one of the best in the NFL, and they generate pressure at a high clip, which Flacco has struggled against, but there's zero late-game bench risk. The Bengals should want to get as many reps as possible for Flacco, as it seems like they're trying to limp into the playoffs for a potential Joe Burrow postseason return. This is a bet on volume and game script. The Bengals should be trailing and throwing for most of, if not the entire, game. The Bengals' run game has been absolutely putrid. Chase Brown is averaging 2.5 ypc on 65 attempts. The Bengals have zero run game, their defense is terrible, and as 14.5 point dogs with a new QB making their debut, this should set up more as a game to get Flacco acclimated with the playbook and WRs. Flacco will take risks and give his superstar WRs a chance down the field.
Risk to win 1 unit
David Montgomery UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-111 DK, -114 Builder/FD, -115 CZRs)
Five games into the season, with a new offensive play caller, and it's clear that the gap between Monty and Gibbs has widened. Per Nathan Jahnke of PFF on the usage of the two backs last week, " Jahmyr Gibbs played 71% of Detroit's offensive snaps over the first seven drives, culminating with his 20-yard touchdown reception. With Detroit up by 28 points, it turned to Montgomery for most of the rest of the game. Montgomery had 19 snaps to Gibbs' five", the Lions have made it clear that Gibbs is their preffered back in short yardage situations, early downs, and third downs. Gibbs is simply too talented to stay off the field. Monty has cleared this number in 3/5 games, but two of those were blowouts (CHI and CIN), and the other game he went over was against the Ravens, who were without their two starting DTs and have looked like the worst defense in football since that game. All three of those defenses are bottom-10 run defenses through 5 weeks. The Chiefs have not been the stout run defense they've been in years past, but as 2.5-point home dogs and with injuries to the Lions' secondary and defense as a whole, I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs' offense was able to force the Lions away from the run. The Chiefs' run defense has also been fine, it does not look like a weakness.
Risk to win 1 unit
Xavier Worthy OVER 4.5 Receptions (-139 CZRs, -140 FD, -143 DK, -135 ESPN)
This Lions secondary is depleted as they're missing their top two corners (DJ Reed and Arnold). In the past two games, Worthy has had a 0.25 TPRR and a total of 17 targets. Worthy has caught 5 and 6 balls in his two games back from injury. The Chiefs' run game has been awful, and through five games, Mahomes is their rushing leader. Detroit's run defense has been great as well, only giving up 92.2 rush yards per game. IF the Chiefs want to win this game, they're going to have to do it through the air and through Worthy.
Risk to win 1 unit
Jared Goff OVER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-118 Builder/DK, -120 ESPN, -135 CZRs play to 31.5)
Goff has been insanely efficient to start the season, completing 75.2% of his passes as the Lions have won four straight coming into their matchup against Kansas City. I am expecting the efficiency to dip at least a little bit against this KC secondary with an increase in pass game volume. This game shapes up to be a shootout and the total reflects that sitting at 52.5. The Chiefs defense hasn't been nearly as dominant as they've been years prior and the Lions are missing their top two corners (DJ Reed and Arnold).
Risk to win 1 unit
Justin Fields UNDER 197.5 Passing Yards (-114 FD, 196.5 DK, CZRS, Builder)
Fields has been a garbage-time king the last two weeks, with just 250 passing yards in the first three quarters the last two weeks and then turning it on in the 4th quarter. The problem is, that it was against the Dolphins and Cowboys, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Legit 31st and 30th in dropback EPA.
Week 1 he threw for 218 yards against the Steelers who have also been bad so far, (23rd in dropback EPA). The best defense they have played is the Bills in Week 2, (11th dropback EPA) and he had just 27 passing yards through 3 quarters before suffering a concussion in the early 4th quarter. The Broncos are an elite unit that held Jake Browning to 125 yards and Cam Ward to 112 yards, the two closest comparables to Fields in terms of passing ability and surrounding talent.
Risk to win 1 unit
Dillon Gabriel UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115 ESPN -120 Builder, -121 Kambi, -125 CZRs | 31.5s on FD/DK are acceptable the +120 on FD is good
Gabriel made his NFL debut against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL and held his own for the most part, but that was primarily because of Stefanski's game plan. The Browns were 23rd out of 28 teams last week in PROE, and Gabriel's time to throw was a minuscule 2.42 seconds. If that 2.42 holds, that will be the fastest time to throw in the NFL. It's clear that Stefanski wants the ball out of Gabriel's hand fast and out of harm's way (a lot of check-downs and screens). Despite being low on Gabriel's outlook in the league, if he continues not to throw the ball down the field and get the ball out quickly, his completion percentage is almost guaranteed to increase from the 57.6% he completed last week. Both offenses in this game will play slowly, and I expect play volume to be down in this divisional matchup. Judkins has also been an absolute beast, and running him as much as they can to muck up the game is in the Browns' best interest if they want to pull out a win in Pittsburgh.
Risk to win 1 unit
Mike Gesicki OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-113 CZRs, -114 FD, -115 Builder)
Gesicki is the Bengals' preferred TE when trailing, which was evident last week when Gesicki out-routed Fant 21-9, and as 14.5-point dogs, it seems inevitable that they're going to be playing from behind. However, Flacco has already defied the odds against the Packers once this season. 33% of the Browns' targets went to TEs, which ranks 2nd on the season. With Flacco now in Cincinnati, it's expected that Gesicki's TPRR should increase slightly; Flacco was with the Colts in 2024, but they lacked a real TE. In 2023, when Flacco was in CLE in games he played with David Njoku, Njoku had a monstrous 0.27 TPRR. The Bengals rank 10th in PROE this season. Green Bay is the NFL's second-best rush defense, allowing only 77.5 yards per game. The Bengals' run game has been nonexistent to begin with, and I expect it to be shut out against a stout Green Bay run D. I expect the Bengals to fall behind and Flacco to drop back A LOT, which should lead to elevated route participation and targets for Gesicki.
Risk to win 1 unit
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