Week 1 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers
Welcome back to another season of Sneaky Starts!
All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.
I’ll put the defense’s aFPA rank in parentheses below, though users should exercise caution in putting too much stock into last year’s strength-of-schedule. The higher the number, the better the matchup. We will update aFPA for 2025 starting with Week 4 of this season.
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Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (vs. CAR, 30)
The Panthers did invest both money and draft capital in their defense, but Carolina allowed an average of 31.4 points per game, which was the most in the league, well ahead of the second-place Cowboys (27.5). This means that we should probably be looking at the Jaguars as Sneaky Starts last week. Trevor Lawrence is probably the best example of a fringe starter type who gets elevated in this matchup. It doesn’t hurt that Carolina yielded the most passing touchdowns (35) last year.
Drake Maye, Patriots (vs. LV, 22)
Drake Maye is intriguing since he averaged low-end QB1 numbers–17.7 points per game–in his nine full-ish games. The Patriots added a talented yet aging receiver in Stefon Diggs, and it looks like Diggs is a go for Week 1. The Raiders defense was middling in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt, though they tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed (29).
Jordan Love, Packers (vs. DET, 26)
The Lions were fairly stingy in passing touchdowns allowed (18), though they yielded the third-most passing yards per game last year (244). Jordan Love dealt with multiple injuries and still was QB13 on a per-game basis after finishing as the fantasy QB5 in 2023. He profiles as a low-end QB1 at home against the Lions this week.
Bryce Young, Panthers (@ JAX, 32)
Jacksonville averaged the most passing yards allowed last season (257 per game) and was tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (29) as well. The Jaguars also yielded the ninth-most rushing yards to enemy quarterbacks, which could lead to a nice rushing day for Bryce Young. In his last eight games, Young averaged 26.0 yards and 0.63 touchdowns on the ground.
QB Prop Play: Joe Flacco OVER 237.5 passing yards. In his last 11 starts, he has averaged 292 passing yards and has gone over this number in nine of 11 games, including all five with the Browns in 2023.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard, Titans (@ DEN, 17)
Tony Pollard’s workload increased from 16.4 touches per game with Tyjae Spears to 24.2 touches in the five games that Spears missed. With Spears out for the first four games, at least, Pollard is likely to be a regular in this space.
RB Prop Play: Pollard OVER 15.5 carries. Pollard had 16, 20, 28, 24, and 22 carries in the five games Spears missed last year.
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