Baker Mayfield Remains a Fantasy QB1 Even With Inevitable Regression

After delivering a career-best season in 2024, Baker Mayfield has transformed from journeyman quarterback to reliable fantasy producer. He finished with 4,500 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, and three rushing touchdowns while posting a 71.1% completion percentage and leading Tampa Bay to a 10-7 record. Despite finishing as a top-5 fantasy quarterback with 22.3 points per game, Mayfield is currently being drafted at 93.0 ADP as QB7, representing solid value for fantasy managers seeking consistent production with significant touchdown upside.

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A Breakout Season Built on Efficiency and Volume

Mayfield's 2024 campaign established him as one of the NFL's most productive quarterbacks. His 4,500 passing yards ranked third in the league, while his 41 passing touchdowns tied for second-most. More impressively, Mayfield achieved this production with remarkable efficiency, posting a career-high 71.1% completion percentage and a 7.2% touchdown rate—the second-highest mark in the NFL.

The consistency was equally impressive. Mayfield threw multiple touchdown passes in 12 of 17 games and surpassed 300 passing yards six times. His ability to find the end zone became a defining characteristic, as he averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. This touchdown production represented a significant leap from his previous career high of 27 passing touchdowns, demonstrating his comfort and effectiveness in Todd Bowles' system.

Mayfield's dual-threat ability added another dimension to his fantasy value. While not known as a rushing quarterback, he contributed 278 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 40 attempts. His mobility proved crucial in key situations, helping him avoid pressure and extend plays for his talented receiving corps.

Elite Supporting Cast Drives Production

The foundation of Mayfield's success lies in Tampa Bay's exceptional skill-position talent. The Buccaneers' skill players ranked in the top six in offensive team grade last season, while the offensive line ranked third in terms of pass blocking, giving Mayfield one of the best supporting units in the league.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin provided elite target options throughout the season, with Evans extending his 1,000-yard receiving streak and Godwin delivering consistent production when healthy. The emergence of rookie Jalen McMillan added another dimension, particularly in the red zone, where he caught multiple touchdown passes from Mayfield.

This core group returns virtually intact for 2025. Evans is locked in through 2026, Godwin re-signed on a three-year deal, and McMillan enters his second season with established chemistry. The Buccaneers also added rookie receivers Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson to provide additional depth and red zone targets. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving returns as the lead back after a strong rookie campaign, maintaining the rushing balance that keeps defenses honest.

Regression Concerns and System Changes

Despite the impressive 2024 numbers, there are legitimate concerns about regression heading into 2025. Mayfield's 7.2% touchdown rate was exceptionally high and historically difficult to sustain. Such elevated touchdown rates typically experience some regression year-over-year, suggesting his 41 passing touchdowns may be closer to his ceiling than his expected output.

The departure of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who was promoted to head coach at Jacksonville, introduces system uncertainty. Coen's replacement, Josh Grizzard, served as Tampa Bay's passing coordinator in 2024, providing some continuity. However, any significant philosophical changes could impact Mayfield's rhythm and production.

Mayfield also led the NFL in interceptions with 16, though his 2.8% interception rate was manageable given his high volume of attempts. The turnover issues occasionally cost Tampa Bay in crucial moments, but didn't significantly derail his overall fantasy value given the touchdown production.

Draft Strategy and 2025 Outlook

At 93.0 ADP as QB7, Mayfield offers compelling value for fantasy managers employing a "wait on quarterback" strategy. His proven ability to support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers makes him an ideal anchor for teams that invest heavily in skill position players early in drafts.

The combination of volume, supporting cast quality, and red zone efficiency creates a high floor for Mayfield's fantasy production. Even with some touchdown regression, his 570 pass attempts and strong completion percentage suggest he can maintain QB1 status through consistent yardage accumulation.

The ceiling remains intriguing despite regression concerns. If Tampa Bay's offense continues operating at a high level and Mayfield maintains his red zone effectiveness, another top-5 fantasy finish is within reach. The key will be whether the new offensive coordinator can maximize the existing talent while maintaining the aggressive approach that made Mayfield so effective in 2024.

The Bottom Line

• Career-best production across the board - Posted 4,500 passing yards (3rd in NFL), 41 passing touchdowns (tied for 2nd), and a 71.1% completion percentage while finishing as a top-5 fantasy quarterback with 22.3 points per game.

• Exceptional touchdown production - His 7.2% touchdown rate ranked second in the NFL, averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game with multiple scoring passes in 12 of 17 games, establishing a clear strength in red zone situations.

• Solid value despite regression concerns - Being drafted at 93.0 as QB7 represents good value for a proven top-5 fantasy quarterback, even accounting for likely touchdown regression from his historically high 7.2% rate.

• Target Mayfield at ADP as a reliable QB1 with proven upside who can anchor your roster while you invest in skill positions early, offering both a high floor through volume and a ceiling through touchdown production.