After a Nightmare 2024, Can Jaylen Warren Bounce-Back in an Aaron Rodgers Offense?

Despite putting up solid per-touch numbers, Jaylen Warren never seems to get the lead-back role. With the Steelers adding another running back in the Draft, can Warren pay off his RB32 ADP?

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2024 Year in Review

It was a year to forget for Warren, marked by injuries, the Steelers’ offensive struggles, and a lack of opportunities.

The injuries cost Warren two games, but they also appeared to sap his explosiveness at times during the season. He had a career-low yards per carry, but look at some more advanced metrics from 2024.

Everything was down across the board for Warren. While we can’t blame injuries for all of it, the significantly lower broken tackle and missed tackle per attempt percentage was the clearest sign that injuries played a legitimate part in his struggles in 2024.

The offense also didn’t do Warren a ton of favors as the season started with QB Justin Fields under center, who doesn’t check down nearly as much as the QBs they had in 2023 and certainly not as much as Russell Wilson did later in the season.

Finally, his lack of opportunities in 2024 also contributed to his down season. He only played 45% of the offensive snaps in his 15 games, down from 49% in his 2024 season. While he only had 29 fewer carries, it would have been close with his two missed games. The bigger issue was that his targets went from 74 in 2023 to 47 in 2024.

His Place in the Offense

So, where exactly does Warren fit in an Arthur Smith offense? All offseason, we heard he would play a major role in the offense, and then we saw how things played out in 2024. We’ve heard the same things this offseason, and then the team added Kaleb Johnson out of Iowa in the third round. Johnson seems like a solid like-for-like replacement with Najee Harris now in Los Angeles.

But again, the drumbeat of a big season for Warren is roaring as training camp opened for Pittsburgh. With a healthy start to camp, should we expect a bigger role in the offense for 2025?

It’s tough to say because we’ve seen how the Arthur Smith Offensive Experience works, right? It’s hard to say Warren becomes the RB1 with Johnson mixing in like Smith had in Atlanta with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but it at least has to be a possibility to open the season.

Another complicating factor is that, in theory, this might be the Smith offense, but when you bring in Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback, you’re essentially running the Rodgers offense. So while the offense is a bit slower, it could be a bit more pass-centric than it was in the first half of 2024 with Fields leading the way.

Fit With Aaron Rodgers

So, how exactly does Warren fit into a Rodgers offense? This is the main question for me with Warren this season. We know Rodgers has a history of not exactly loving rookies, especially in pass protection. I think a safe assumption, at least, is that Warren will be the third-down back, but what kind of work will he see through the air?

Rodgers attempted 584 passes last year with the Jets. 113 of those were to running backs, which was the second-most in the league. In fact, only six quarterbacks had over 100 targets to running backs, and only Baker Mayfield’s 120 were higher than Rodgers.

Obviously, Warren won’t see all of those targets, but it certainly helps that Rodgers' propensity to check down should increase Warren’s targets from 47 to something closer (or higher?) than what he had in 2023.

The Bottom Line

• Warren had an injury-plagued 2024 where pretty much everything that could have possibly gone wrong did go wrong.

• While Najee Harris is in Los Angeles, Pittsburgh added rookie running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round.

• The Aaron Rodgers experience should benefit Warren more than anyone outside of DK Metcalf on the Pittsburgh offense.

• At RB32 his ADP (92nd overall) hasn’t really moved since the team took Kaleb Johnson, it feels a bit high, but there’s no one in the 5-7 running backs after him I’d rather have.

• While I wouldn’t reach for Warren, I would feel comfortable taking him in any sort of build right around ADP.