Monotone's Week 13 Best Bets: Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bets
First and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving to anyone reading this, really appreciate the support on this article this season! Last week, we saw a ton of notable matchups that resulted in some ugly games. We walked away with some small profit after all the chaos, which is all you can ask for at the end of the day. This holiday week is one of the most fun for betting all year long, and I look forward to adding some winners to Turkey Day. After 12 full weeks, we are currently sitting at 80-50 +17u (61.6%), and I look forward to building on that right now!
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Week 13 NFL Player Props
Trey McBride o5.5 receptions -135
Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense should force the ball out quickly and Trey McBride profiles as a perfect beneficiary, especially considering their other biggest weapon is Harrison Jr. who does most of his work down the field, which the Vikings have been great at limiting. McBride is the Cards leading receiver this season in receptions (61) and yards (685) and is coming off his best game of the season with 12 catches for 133 yards on 15 targets.
We’ve seen high usage TE’s take care of business against Minnesota this season:
Kmet 6-74
Engram 6-40
Kittle 7-76
LaPorta 1-25
I write some variation of this writeup every week because it’s pretty simple, the Vikings' heavy zone blitzing defense forced teams to get the ball out quickly to their best short yardage target. McBride just posted the highest first-read target percentage of any TE all season last week (56%) along with his 33% marks since Week 5.
Risk 1u to win 0.75u -135 DK, -138 FD, playable to -150
Joe Burrow o258.5 passing yards -114
While I’ve been very critical of Joe Burrow in the past, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s playing great football right now. What I really like about Joe Burrow here is absolutely destroys single high coverage, and the Steelers run by far the most single high coverage in the league. At the corner position, Joey Porter Jr has been great, but Bishop and Johnson are incredibly susceptible in man coverage which is huge against a team with two high-end WRs in Chase and Higgins. In addition to betting on Burrow, this will be a great live betting opportunity for whichever receiver avoids Porter (likely Chase because of he moves around a lot).
Burrow is third in the NFL in passing yards and is having a fantastic season despite his team having plenty of problems with health on the roster. Since Week 7, Cincy has been playing very aggressively with the fifth-fastest pace and the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL. This number is simply two low in a must-win game for the Bengals QB.
Risk 1.14u to win 1u 258.5 FD, 260.5 DK, playable to 265.5
Ladd McConkey o64.5 REC yards -113
Over 4.5 receptions -156
Ladd has seen 64+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games with a 22% target share operating as the teams #1 weapon. With a sad grouping of Johnston, Palmer, and Reagor, it’s pretty easy to see why I’m targeting the standout rookie in a game with a high total and plenty of projected offense. Ladd leads an incredibly impressive rookie WR group in yards, explosive plays, and EPA/per target.
McConkey will primarily match up against CB Dee Alford in the slot, who has struggled this season (59.2 PFF coverage grade) & bottom 10th percentile is limiting separation. On a bottom 10 DVOA pass the slot is the preferred target here.
Per PFF Justin Herbert has the second-best passer rating out of a clean pocket, and the Falcons constantly struggle to get pressure on the quarterback. Ladd leads the team in first-read target share at should benefit as Herbert’s most consistent target. Herbert had some really good things to say about him this week as well
“One of the most important things about Ladd is how friendly he is to the quarterback,” …. “I talk about this all the time. He runs such great routes and comes back at such a friendly angle. He’s never running into danger. He’s never running directly into a guy who’s going to cover him. He’s just got a great feel for zone (defenses) and has enough shiftiness to be able to beat man coverage”
Yards:Risk 0.57u to win 0.5u -113 FD, playable to 68.5 yards
Receptions: risk 0.78u to win 0.5u - 4.5 -156 FD, 5.5 +126 CZR, was writing up for 5.5 catches but Fanduel dropped a good number so take that, if not pivot to 5.5 at +100 or better.
Darnell Mooney o20.5 longest reception -113
50+ receiving yards -120
This feels like a solid buy-low after Mooney missed this number last week in a blowout where he barely played in the second half. Overall he has 50+ yards & a 21+ yard catch in 7/11 games this season, and a high-scoring Chargers matchup seems like a great spot to continue that.
LAC has the 2nd highest 2 high rate in the NFL (60.8%). Mooney sees huge spikes in both efficiency and usage against 2 high with a YPRR of 2.71 (5th best in the NFL) & a 1st-read share of 29.2% (best on the team over London). The Chargers have a solid defense but this sets up to be a high pace matchup, and they’ve allowed 8 25+ yard catches over the last 3 games.
Mooney is 3/3 vs defenses with Top-10 Rates of Two-High
KC 66 receiving yards (33)
NO 96 receiving yards (26)
NO 56 receiving yards (36)
Long rec risk 0.85u to win 0.75u 113 CZR, -120 MGM/365/DK playable to 22.5
Yards risk 0.6u to win 0.5u 50+ -120 FD/365, -130 CZR playable to 54.5 -110
Jonathan Taylor o79.5 rushing yards -110
The Colts offense have the fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation this season, and Jonathan Taylor has minimal competition in the backfield. While Taylor hasn’t been as dominant this season, he’s still gone for 88+ rush yards in 5/9 games this season. In the Colts' three wins w/ Taylor this season he’s gone 23-110, 21-88, and 24-57. I think a rare Neutral/positive game script will be great for Taylor’s production.
Teams are running the ball at the fourth-highest rate in neutral game scripts this season against the Patriots, and this will be a rare game where the Colts may be leading. This is reflected by his 19.5 carries number.
RB’s with 15+ carries vs NE
Jordan Mason 24-123
Mostert 19-80 + J Wright 13-86
Bigsby 26-118
Breece Hall 16-80 + B Allen 12-32
Tony Pollard 28-128
Swift 16-59
Kyren Williams 15-86
Don’t love playing high RB numbers in general but the volume should be there and I think this is a solid 10 yards underpriced. Richardson completions are set at 14.5 for a reason… expecting plenty of opportunities on the ground.
Risk 0.83u to win 0.75u -110 365/MGM, -115 DK, -122 FD, 80.5 CZR playable to 83.5 -110
Marquez Valdes-Scantling longest reception over 20.5 -120
MVS has a career 17.4 yards per catch average, even previously leading the league in that category. He will always be a boom or bust deep threat, but we’ve seen Carr and the Saints sustain that kind of usage all season long with Olave and Shaheed. Obviously a downgrade in talent but someone has to catch the ball, and MVS has mad the most of his touches with 67 & 71 yard catches in his last two games.
The Rams defense is allowing the 2nd most explosive pass plays over the last 3 weeks, along with the 4th most this season. They are also allowing the 4th highest completion percentage on deep passes, making this an intriguing matchup for MVS.
Not widely available but like playing 40+ reception small (CZR & 365 +390). Since his rookie year MVS has 25+ receptions of 40+ yards which is 5th in the NFL in that span.
Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u o20.5 -110 Rivers ESPN, -120 MGM, -125 CZR, 21.5 DK, playable to 22.5 -120
Calvin Ridley longest reception o23.5 -120
Ridley gets a Commanders team ranking top 10 in man coverage, which he’s absolutely dominated this season. He’s over this number in 5 of his last 6 games with an average of 8 targets per game.
From Week 8 to Week 12 (the post-Hopkins era), Ridley ranks:
-third in the NFL in receiving yards (451)
-first in yards per catch for receivers with 25+ receptions (15.6)
-first in aDOT for receivers with 20+ receptions (15.3)
-second in contested catches (8)
This is pretty simple, without Lattimore Washington simply doesn’t have any corners to line up with Ridley. Even though they are decent-sized underdogs I think this game will be closer, and while the overall passing volume may shrink I think Pollard/Spears should open up some good play-action opportunities. Overall volume may be lower but I still like the matchup a lot with his role vs man coverage this year.
Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u -120 FD, 24.5 -115 CZR/DK, playable to 24.5 -120
Adonai Mitchell o29.5 receiving yards -113
One of my most anticipated lines this week, huge fan of the talent profile on Mitchell who is in store for a big usage increase without Josh Downs. Pierce missed multiple practices this week, and could be in store for a reduced workload as well. Mitchell is definitely someone that will win down the field, but his usage here will likely be as a slot replacement for Downs, which could be conducive to some extra volume. While Gonzalez doesn’t normally shadow, he’s likely to avoid that matchup with Pittman being much more likely, especially considering he mostly stays outside.
The Patriots are currently 3rd in man coverage rates, and AD Mitchell somehow leads this team in targets against Man Coverage on the season (via Fantasy Points). Huge boosts to 3.50 YPPR vs man versus 1.44 vs zone this year. Truly an insane stat considering he’s barely been a part-time player but the coaching staff clearly sees the separation ability, and he should be able to take advantage here.
Risk 0.85u to win 0.75u -113 FD, 30.5 Fan, 35.5 -120 CZR, 37.5 rest of market. Honestly thought this number would open between 38-40, so comfortable with the 37.5…. But definitely take advantage of Fanduel's number here. Richardson leads the league in deep pass rate, so if it gets any higher 19.5 longest reception is a good pivot.
D.J. Moore o4.5 receptions -114 FD
+1 with Noonan
D.J. Moore's aDOT is down to 1.9 yards over the last two weeks with Thomas Brown, a pretty insane number compared to his prior regular season production. When asked about it, Brown highlighted wanting to get him the ball in open space.
“That guy’s pretty dynamic when you get the ball in his hand, so whether it’s screens, quick game throws, vertical down the field throws — any way to get that guy in space, I’m all about.”
He has the most yards after catch in the NFL during that span, don’t see any reason why they would turn away from this after recording 7 catches in both games, including multiple targets from the backfield. They are 10 point dogs and once against a tough rushing matchup, Williams will be forced to throw and they need to get the ball out quickly to mitigate mistakes, Moore will benefit.
Risk 1.14u to win 1u - 114 FD, -120 ESPN, -130 365
Caleb Williams o31.5 rushing yards -110
With a huge coaching swing, one of the first things anyone with eyes noticed was the increased rushing usage for Williams. He averaged 2 scrambles per game with Waldron but that’s jumped to 5 in each of his two starts. In addition to that, we’ve seen designed run usage, which we just saw the Colts and Anthony Richardson use to a lot of success late last week. Lions, on paper, allow the 15th most QB rushing yards but haven’t really played many actually mobile QBs, so even at a high number, I think there is some value with a defense known for struggling to contain mobile QBs.
Even before the coaching shift Williams had success running vs man coverage. Posted he had 56 rushing yards vs JAX who is ranked 2nd in man coverage rate (40.9%) & 47 vs WAS who is ranked 8th (32%). He now gets a Lions team that runs more man coverage than anyone else in the NFL. Should be playing from behind all game which will lead to increased drop backs.
Risk 0.83u to win 0.75u - 29.5 Rivers, 30.5 MGM, 31.5 FD/365/ESPN, 32.5 CZCR, playable to 32.5
Brock Bowers 60+ receiving yards -110
Chiefs have really struggled against the TE position, allowing each of the last 7 TE’s they played to cover their receiving number. They’ve faced three high usage TE’s this year and struggled against each of them:
Kittle 6-92
Bowers 5-58
Otton 8-77
In two games with Aidan O’Connell getting 20+ pass attempts at QB he’s seen 10 targets for 9-71 & 8-97. AOC sucks and can’t move the ball down the field, he will constantly take the shorter/intermediate yardage target which helps Bowers. I think this game goes like every AOC start, where they run into a brick wall for the first quarter then immediately start the garbage time playbook with short passing against soft coverages.
Bowers started the season slow against Cover 2 specifically but now has a 30% targets share, chiefs are top 5 in cover 2 usage all year long.
Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u -110 365, -120 FD, playable to 62.5 - will also be very interested in re-investing live after the raiders get out to a slow start.
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