Week 5 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 07, 2023

Sunday Night Football Single-Game DFS: Cowboys vs. 49ers

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of the Sunday Night Football showdown breakdown. We've got a prime matchup for you: the Dallas Cowboys, who just demolished the Patriots 38-3, versus the San Francisco 49ers, who made the Cardinals look like they were playing a different sport altogether. The Cowboys come into this game with a 3-1 record and a chip on their shoulder and looking to keep pace with the undefeated Eagles in the NFC East, while the 49ers strut in as the other NFC unbeaten and the fourth-best point differential in the NFL. Both teams are relatively healthy, especially on the offensive side of the ball, though the Cowboys' pass defense is still certainly missing all-pro cornerback Treyvon Diggs due to a season-ending knee injury. Let's locate some key DFS strategies to help improve our chances of a profitable slate.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Cowboys (-10, 20.75) @ 49ers (-3.5, 24.25); Over/Under 45

The betting lines for this game have the Cowboys as 3.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 20.75. The 49ers, on the other hand, have an implied team total of 24.25. This is a relatively modest total, that doesn't really take into account the offensive firepower on both sides. It's not a bad line, per se, but the range of outcomes in this matchup is quite high. Both teams are comfortable grinding out a win while scoring under 20 points and are equally capable of blowing the roof off of teams, as both evidenced last week.

And yet, neither team has been particularly aggressive in terms of pace or passing during neutral game scripts. The Cowboys are only slightly above average in pace but well below average in pass rate. Similarly, the 49ers are less pass-heavy and less pace-focused than much of the league. And both defenses are fairly strong run-funnels, meaning they’re designed to make you beat them on the ground. Dallas ranks first in defensive pass DVOA, and San Francisco ranks right behind. Neither defense ranks better than 12th in rush DVOA.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

We can argue till the cows come home about supporting cast and offensive scheme, but as of right now, Purdy is a Pro Bowler. He's sixth in the NFL in completion percentage versus expectation and absolutely dominates in advanced metrics like xDrive Success and EPA per game, sitting at the top with the likes of Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. He's 13th in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, while ranking outside the top 25 in pass attempts and air yards, and 19th in total carries. He’s number one in completion percentage from a clean pocket and in total QBR.

Dak Prescott, not to be outdone, ranks in the top 10 in per-pass, per-drive, and per-game efficiency metrics. According to PlayerProfiler, he’s fourth in true completion percentage and leads the league in deep-ball accuracy. However, he's been weirdly unlucky in the red zone while leading the NFL in total pass attempts inside the 20. His four touchdowns, 17th among QBs is somewhat puzzling, is something we'd expect to correct itself over the course of the season. Facing the 49ers' elite secondary is a tall order, but Prescott is certainly capable of rising to the occasion. Both these quarterbacks have shown they can single-handedly win games, even if the quality of the defenses they're facing suggests that won't be the first way either offense attacks.